Now the Russian army can even walk to Lviv, and nothing, absolutely not happen

[HainanWel.com(e)!]

Today Russophobian, pro-American and pro-fascist ersatz state Ukraine can be eliminated as a fact and as the idea of ​​a short military operation, and probably even a massive airstrike. This, of course, the state as a political structure, and only. The same blow guaranteed existence of the State of New Russia with opening luxurious choice of action. Without doing this, Russia will have in the future is a full-fledged war with hostile and fully consolidated state because any opposition to Russia - the only meaning of its creation and existence. Today's indecision and lack of will of the authorities (or, if anything, too strategic thinking) tomorrow will lead Russia to big trouble. Trying to be too clever by half and outsmart all, sit on two chairs, to avoid confrontation with the West over the fact that the conflict will still only Russia's starting position will be much worse than it is now.

Now the Russian army can reach even the city - and nothing, absolutely nothing happens. There will be no direct military confrontation with NATO. Will howl, hubbub, will strengthen the group in Poland, but in fact it was going to happen, is happening. On the contrary, every step back, each is dealt a position closer to the Russian war with NATO. This will be the price softness. That's what we will do when in Kharkov accommodate NATO bases in Ukraine and in Russia, in the Crimea climb "detachments liberators", not the NATO and Ukrainian? The Russian army will not be able to cross the border without starting thus the war against NATO. Means or war with NATO, or the war on its territory.

Strongly agree with many respected authors, who argue that the main purpose of the West in the conflict in Ukraine - to draw Russia into the war. On the contrary, from the beginning said that the West and the junta panic fear Russian military operation, because they know that nothing will be able to counter this. This goal (retraction) certainly exists, but it exists only as a side, so to speak, the residual on the principle of "bezrybe cancer and fish." I think the West developed the script of variability, which is quite natural for any planning. In order to save space and time expounding it in a simplified form.

In 2013 began the final stage of a 25-year campaign, which aims to establish full undivided control over Ukraine and the creation of her springboard against Russia. Variability of action at this stage is final.

Step 1. Setting up buchu (fall Yanukovych) and take control of the whole of Ukraine, including Crimea.

Option A. Moscow really does not oppose, the goal is achieved.

Option B: Moscow actively intervenes, Crimea lost. Then go to Step 2.

Step 2. Trying to establish the rule of the junta throughout Ukraine, except Crimea. Now the situation is at this point.

Option A. The resistance can be suppressed in the SE. The goal is achieved.

Option B: Moscow uses force or are so active in helping the Resistance, it is itself unable to go on the offensive and destroy the junta, or at least clear the SE. Novorossia lost (there are different options of the second rank: all areas or all, etc.). Then go to step 3.

Step 3. Ensure control at least over the Central and Western Ukraine.

Option A. Moscow satisfied Novorussia goal is reached.

Option B: Moscow goes further and eliminates the junta to power in Ukraine. (More variation is very wide: the creation of a buffer state in the west, Russia's control over the whole of the former Ukraine section of Western Ukraine between Poland, Hungary and Romania, etc.). Ukraine lost, go to step 4.

Step 4. Least draw Russia into the war in the former territories of Ukraine. Support the rebel anti-Russian forces.

Here, where on the scale of variation in the tree or opportunities is the goal retracting Russia in the war, although the same is possible after step 2 (loss of control over the West Novorussia) and even after step 1 (loss of Crimea). In any case, the purpose of this - non-core.

More West can use the tool of sanctions. Well, who really loses and who wins?

Of gas and say nothing, everything is clear, winter is coming. But I really want to see how Europe and the U.S. will sell their Mercedes, Peugeot, Ford and other penguins in Antarctica. I long to see how, after the introduction of total sanctions will bankrupt European tour operators accept that and now can barely alive, and massively closed hotels, romantic overgrown with ivy, and with them the restaurants, shops ...

The U.S. goal - just an economic blow to Europe? Yes, it probably is. But let Europe itself chooses his fate, about it, then we can say so, it should not be about the New Russia.

In any case, long-term Russia will not suffer from sanctions, but only win. Most seasoned economists now recognize that Russia is inscribed in the virtual economy built the West, but doomed. Russia in these coordinates playing someone else's game. The game is not even zero, and, I fear, with a negative amount. Even if the system has a chance of future life, in Russia it will still never be able to play an independent role, able to develop as the meaning of the system - to block the development and use of resources in countries such as Russia, to their advantage. Break with this system will allow the economy to reorient the huge domestic market, while increasing its effective demand - the self-inductance, in some way. In general, sanctions - a chance to jump off the train hurtling into the abyss.

Undoubtedly, short and medium term losses from the jump will be, but there will be a bright future. The fact that some families will have the capital instead of three Cayenne family only one, not such a great tragedy. A majority of the population, especially the rural and not notice.

That's who really, in a long, deep suffer from devastating sanctions bude those happen, it's a few dozen of the most influential "prikremlevskih" oligarchs who have huge assets in the West (studio on the Costa del Sol or villa in Montenegro do not count), and several hundred (maybe thousands) under their patronage. Needless to say, to what degree should matter to their fate the Russian people?

This historic choice now faces the Kremlin. If he notices it? If you notice, there is in the Kremlin will to choose right?

Remember one of the main principles of traffic rules? "Your actions should be understandable to others." This does not exclude the possibility and even necessity of deceptive maneuvers and cunning plans to double or triple bottom, but if you said that in the case of protection of Russian threats to their lives, even though nobody was pulling the tongue, and then calmly look at the massacres and in response just only "fish mouth opens, but not heard, that sings", what signal you give your well-wishers, but more so, the detractors? To call for a peaceful settlement - that's fine, but if the management of DNR and LC have repeatedly appealed to you with direct request for recognition and send troops, if stated that back in Ukraine there is no way, what you call them supporters of federalization and citizens of Ukraine? Why threaten tanks, and when they are needed, leading them?

Perhaps the most terrible defeat, which Russia has already suffered, is that the Kremlin has shown the West that is afraid of him, looking back at him, and in his, Russian, exclusive interests.

Any schoolboy knows that if threatened, and did not realize the threat upon the occurrence of the conditions of its implementation, this threat directly work against yourself. Nobody else your threats seriously not accept.

If the Kremlin has a still-mnogoumny plan to eliminate the artificial state of Ukraine, in what I still still prefer to believe in spite of many facts, because there are other facts (such as militias success in destroying helicopters and armored vehicles of the junta), here this error - a recognition of fear - is unforgivable. However, it is too late to correct.

You have tons of straw podstelil: contract on gas supplies to China, an agreement on the Eurasian Union. What else do you want?

Harrass junta resistance in LC and DNR, forcing her to de facto independence and take them to negotiate with them and thus keeping her in internal dissension and send it to the attacking energy upon itself, and then in the coming chaos attract other areas of SE to join the New Russia - seem to see such motivated the actions of some experts in Moscow. The expectation is that, given the success of the Resistance, more conscripts will refuse to go to war, more natsgvardeytsev begin to fear for their lives will be worse the economy is ... I admit that such a path is viewed, it will only be a very long and circuitous, and most importantly , success is not guaranteed, as the United States on any such "more" is a local response methods. They will be able to supply the junta mercenaries money on military aid they have enough, and resource replenishment of manpower from the ranks of the SS is very large. Do not forget that the very numerous segments of the population against the background of the former Ukrainian sverhuspeshnyh Novorossia promote hatred will only grow in the process, hence the lack of volunteers to be expected. Public opinion in the West naively expect.

And here lies the real risk of being drawn - in a grueling costly confrontation with uncertain outcome and not somewhere beyond the horizon, and in their own penalty area. A Russian people will die this time.

It is only against the military operation, the U.S. Russia has no methods.

Russian President now has an almost unlimited credibility of his people and can take the most radical steps if these steps will be made towards the revival of great power, the return of its land and its people gathering. Any economic turmoil, which may cause the sanctions will be forgiven him. I think it is no exaggeration to say that the unconditional victory for the former Ukraine and Transnistria Putin put on a par with - well, I do not know - Peter the Great, Alexander the Great, nothing less will do it in the minds of the people of the Holy Emperor, God's representative on ground. And this century, and even more ... And everything will be completely different if Novorossia be sacrificed selfish interests of oligarchs. Time selection. Person's character - his fate.