How many live technological civilization?

[DARPA]

"We do not have any idea of how many there may be a technological civilization like ours, - says astrophysicist at the University of Rochester, Adam Frank. - 200, 500 or 50 000 years? The answer to this question lies at the heart of all our concerns about the sustainability of human society. Are we the first and only technology-driven civilization in the history of the universe? If not, should we try to learn something about the past ups and downs of other species? ".

Climate change caused by human intervention, acidification of the oceans and the extinction of species may eventually lead to the collapse of civilization, according to some scientists, while others argue that for political or economic reasons, we should allow the industry to develop without restrictions. In the latter work two astrophysicists argue that these issues can be resolved soon in a scientific way, thanks to new data about the Earth and other planets in our galaxy.

In a paper that appeared in late 2014 in the journal Anthropocene, Frank and his co Woodruff Sullivan called for a new research program that will help answer questions about the future of humanity in the broadest astronomical context. As the author himself says, "to look at our current situation, it is necessary in some way to determine the natural evolutionary path."

To approach these issues, and Frank Sullivan began with the famous Drake equation, the formula used to estimate the number of intelligent societies in the universe. In his version of the equation the authors focused on the average "species with energy-intensive technologies» (SWEIT). Frank and Sullivan estimated that even if the chances of formation of such "high-tech" types will be 1 to trillions in history must not be less than 1,000 occurrences of species such as ours on the planets in the "local" region of space.

"That's enough to start thinking about statistics, - says Frank - for example, the average life expectancy of the species that begin production of energy efficient and use it to develop high-tech."

Using the theory of dynamical systems, the authors outline a strategy for modeling the trajectory of various SWEIT during their evolution. They show how the development may be closely related to the interaction of species and the planet. As the population grows and the type of energy, too, the composition of the planet and its atmosphere can change over long periods of time.

Frank and Sullivan show that the study of habitability of exoplanets will maintain the important lessons of civilization that we have developed on Earth. This "astrobiology perspective" represents stability as depending on where a subset of habitability, or the ability of the planet to sustain life. Although resistance is associated with a particular form of life on each particular planet astrobiologists raise a more important question: how to define it for any form of life on any planet at any given period of time?

We do not know how to compare other possible forms of life to those that we know on Earth. However, to determine an average time of their existence, according to Frank, this is not necessary.

"If they use the energy to work, they produce entropy. It does not matter whether they are anthropomorphic creatures from "Star Trek" with antennae on their heads or single-celled organisms with a collective Overmind. Entropy in this case would create such a powerful impact on the habitability of the planet that we noticed this even in the world. "