NATO's military might: and the king is naked

[DARPA]

Not so long ago we did a generalized analysis of the real extent of the military capabilities of the North Atlantic Alliance, but after the announcement Francois Hollande, a desire to see more NATO war machine. In the end, when the French president said, - "I think it's - the last chance. If we can not come to a lasting peace agreement, we know perfectly further scenario: it has a name, this scenario is called the war "- it makes sense to at least just in case one more time to double-check the numbers. Suddenly NATO during this time that something fundamentally changed?

In general, those who are now rattles rifle butts on the cobblestones, you can understand. More recently (twenty years ago), only one Northern Army Group Alliance (Northern Army Group, NORTHAG), with headquarters in Rendalene (Germany) consisted of four corps (British, German, Belgian, Dutch) as first-line and had two more (French and American) in reserve. Area of Responsibility NORTHAG stretched from Göttingen (Germany) - Liege (Belgium) in the south to the mouth of the River Elbe and throughout the Netherlands in the north. More than 200 thousand. Bayonets. Only one 1st Army Corps of the Bundeswehr had more than 1,200 tanks and about 350 PU ATGM. Power. But it was not the main force, as the most important is the Central Army Group (Central Army Group, CENTAG) consisting of two American and two German corps. And there were Southern Command, which includes forces of Spain, Italy, Greece and Turkey, relying on striking power of the American 6th (Mediterranean) Sea Fleet.

Since 1952, this war machine replenished, trained, rearming, once trained, rearming and again to reflect the possible occurrence of the Soviet Union to Western Europe. However, in the headquarters of NATO does not exclude the possibility of a preemptive strike on the Soviet Union, if it is tucked right conditions. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of the USSR to such term are more than serious. So in European culture faith in the power of NATO evolving in decades and after the collapse of the USSR faith in the immensity of his power became absolute. In particular - after the "victory" over Yugoslavia. Time - and no country has one of the largest armies in Central Europe.

In short, there were glorious times. Only now they are gone. Absolutely. As always happens after any final victory, the army began a large scale decline. For contain modern armed forces not cheap. Once the Soviet Union is no more, why should it be spent? It was so decided at the EU summit in Cologne (June 1999) and Helsinki (December of the same year). Believing that Europe will cope on itself, after September 11, 2001, the US began withdrawing its troops, partly home, partly - shifting them to other regions. In particular, in Afghanistan, where America began a great hunt for Osama bin Laden. Later there was a "first" of Iraq. Behind him - the "second". And Washington was not up to Europe.
At first glance, the process had a good reason. The US population at the time was 275 million. People. It contained and feed an army of 1.4 million. Soldiers and officers. In Europe, there were 375 million. Inhabitants and 1.6 million. "Bayonets" in European armies. And the war in Yugoslavia has demonstrated that the war of the future will no longer be a mass, becoming mostly counterinsurgency. For its conduct such huge forces are no longer needed. And, hence, there is no need to spend money on them. Began a long period of numerous military reforms and structural reorganization.

As a result, to date, all NATO forces account for 1.5 million. People, of which 990 thousand. Of American troops (of which only 30 thousand. Soldiers and officers deployed in Europe, and the rest are deployed in the United States, and many of them are involved in war being waged by America in the Middle East). Ie proper "Europeans" as part of the Alliance forces there are only 600 thousand. Moreover, this amount includes all the national armed forces of member countries, although under the command structures of the Alliance staff given less than a third. Thus, in reality, the military bloc has only 200 thousand soldiers of European armies. By the way, here it becomes clear arrogance, which arose in the spring of 2014 in Kiev, on paper, "who had" 130 thousand. Soldiers and officers. However, compared with the Bundeswehr, the total number of which by 2010 had fallen to 201 thousand. Man Ukrainian military machine also looked solid.

Organizational all NATO forces today are summarized in two strategic commands: Allied Strategic Command in the Atlantic and the NATO Strategic Commanders in Europe. The first is mainly engaged in the war at sea, and the second focused on the conduct of ground fighting. SC NATO in Europe consists of two parts, from Allied Northern Europe, with headquarters in Brunssum (Netherlands) and Allied Forces Southern Europe, with its headquarters in Naples (Italy). Each of them, in turn, is divided into separate and specific territorial command. For example, there is a separate commander of the Joint Force NATO "North", is just as Commander of the Joint Navy "North", and even the two commanders of the land (combined arms) forces - NATO "North" and NATO "Center". In general, complex, overloaded with numerous staffs and the Joint Command of the governance structure is the first major weak point of the Alliance, significantly reducing its real combat effectiveness. US military experts believe that because of this the real possibilities of European military bloc today barely short of the 10% of Americans.

But the fun starts with the calculation of real soldiers, guns and tanks available to the Bloc. In fact, it turns out that NATO exists only on paper. If formally, the European NATO countries commit to up to 90 days to form a nine buildings already rapid deployment. Including: joint army corps; Evrokopus, German-Dutch, Spanish, Italian, French, Turkish, German-Danish-Polish and Greek housing. Times when 200 thousand. Bayonets Northern Army Group in 48 hours not only raises the alarm, but also on the defensive, having made a 450-mile march from the region of their permanent deployment are long gone. The current NATO only to the deployment of military units to states require three months. And then - this is a big question. Given current events in Greece, its share in the 50 th. Bayonets Brussels hardly expect. As, however, on the Turkish troops too. The big question part of Spain. So in reality, the stated period will certainly be thwarted.

It is important to consider one more thing, invented by NATO planners. On the "green whistle" military units formed not anyhow. Specific units are responsible for specific countries. For example, responsible for the formation of the German-Danish-Polish corps is Germany. Consequently, at least 60% of its structure, especially the rear and a staff member shall be filled by German soldiers and officers. As far as Poland actually agree to return under direct German command its national forces - the big question. On paper, something like, yes, but the reality is different Polish-German political tensions will not disappear. That, as a minimum, will affect the timing of the creation. Yes and executive discipline is likely too.

Imagine the scene. A treacherous aggressor invades Poland and trashes her army, and the Polish General Staff must take the most battle-worthy and send his brigade in Germany, in the region of formation of a joint body. Yes, wait until there is Danes arrive. What do you think, how easy Warsaw in reality short supply part with their reserves? Moreover, the reserve is also the best quality, because the forces that make submission to NATO, are usually trained and equipped better than any other national groups.

On the German-Dutch housing problems occur no less. Netherlands a part of the forces of course give. Between these countries there is little political tensions. But here's the technical level of these forces the Germans are not happy now. With the armies of the Benelux countries over the last 10 years in general there was one big problem. Their commanders decided that tracked vehicles no longer meets the challenges of our time. It is expensive, difficult to maintain, and extremely environmentally unfriendly operation. Tanks on the march spoil the pavement and soil. And in general, the cost of one of their operating hours is that most of the time the tanks carry on wheeled Truckee. In general, unnecessary extra costs. Available armed with tanks went under the write-off and sale abroad. For example, Belgium 40 Leopard 1A5 of its armored units sold Lebanon. Germany tries to block such transactions, but does not have much success. Instead, tanks, army Belgium and the Netherlands the main type of armored APCs buy Swiss MOWAG Piranha, setting them on a variety of combat units. In general, it turns out well. Heavy machine gun plus an automatic 20-or 30-m mm gun against Papuans with guns - a serious trump card. But as a replacement main battle tank - complete nothingness.

What most disturbs the Germans, so it is the conviction of the Belgians and the Dutch, that "if it happens", they closed down the German tanks. The ones that the Bundeswehr is also forced to reduce the mean reduction in the national defense budget. But neighbors budgets cut even faster. So the total number of armed forces of the Netherlands has been reduced to 47 thousand. Man. Total! Including officers of the General Staff, Medical Corps separate and everyone there storekeepers with hleborezami. From whom they will recruit its part of the joint body - remains a mystery.

At the expense of the Eurocorps - another story. Formally, we are talking about an old, yet in 1992, a joint Franco-German project to build a multi-ethnic association corps level. Initially, it was positioned as a prototype of the new army united Europe to replace NATO. But replacing burnt out and not Evrokorp hastily began to build in the mobilization structure of the alliance. On paper, it looked beautiful. Ethnic Evrokopus in peacetime has headquarters battalion of the 53rd Regiment of the Armed Forces Communications and France Franco-German infantry brigade. Ie in peacetime real combat units throughout the Eurocorps all four battalions, including two German and two French, a total of 900 to 1300 people. Of course, Eurocorps each year holds many teachings, participation in which is involved in all sorts of other German and French armored and mechanized divisions. But there is a caveat. Not all of the division as a whole, but only a few units. Maximum, up to battalion strength. Which again raises the question of the degree of edge real combat readiness of all housing.

But the most important thing is not even that. Virtually all NATO's military might rests on the backbone of the only two European armies: German, of a total of 201 thousand. Man, and the French, the total number of 135 thousand. Man. And ... everything! Formally, there still is the UK, where the Army has 100 thousand. Man, but really fighting some of them less than half. Even worse in Italy. In theory here is appropriate to calculate the army of Poland, the largest in Eastern Europe. Polish Army ground forces up to 68 thousand. Man, but the number of actual combat units in which approximately corresponds to the British. Ie in the event of a major war at the disposal of NATO Warsaw can pass hardly more than 15 thousand. bayonets.

Thus, it appears that the front, if you count on the line of contact with Russia and Belarus, a length of more than 3 thousand. Kilometers, in the case of "if that" all mighty NATO can put on the strength of 50-70 thousand. Soldiers and officers. Well, or 300,000 if the aggressor alliance will give three months to calm the formation of his troops. I emphasize, if will.

And the United States? Firstly, the US Army ground forces are reduced from the current 560 thousand. Bayonets to 490,000 under the plan. This means that once formed the basis of calculations of 960 thousand. Only in support of NATO in Brussels not. And even those 30,000 who have previously deployed in Europe, is no longer the same. Of the four infantry brigades, already pressed down to the states in 3800 people each, 170-I (point of permanent deployment Baumholder, Germany) and 172-I (PPD Grafenver, Germany) teams for 2015 will not simply deduced home, and completely reduced. Folds and several other support structures of the American army, and territory and property they occupy military bases back to local governments.

His sharp weakening of NATO is trying to disguise the expansion of the list of the exercise and loud public relations program for the formation of any new forces "particularly rapid deployment." This is not a joke. VJTF stands for «Very High Readiness Joint Task Force» or "Joint forces are very quick response." The total number - 5 thousand. Man. February 5 this year, they decided to strengthen as much as 30 thousand. Man. At the heart of the "spearhead" are airborne, airmobile, and all sorts of other "special" units from 28 countries of the alliance. Including two light infantry battalions. Including the 371 th mechanized infantry battalion of the German-Dutch corps. All the specialness of the new structure is only in the fact that it can be used for its intended purpose indeed "very quickly" - within 3 to 10 days.

This is all that the entire North Atlantic Alliance today is able to put on the battlefield. At all. And even that is questionable. Anyway, staff officers in Brussels make no secret of the fact that the real level of mobility VJTF unknown. Transport aircraft of NATO countries is hopelessly outdated and strongly reduced in numbers. So to transfer all forces by air, most likely impossible. And on the railways increased weight is not enough platforms for transportation of heavy military equipment. Therefore, it is assumed that part of it, along with ammunition, food and other equipment will be deployed in advance of special items of supply in Eastern European NATO member countries. Full Operational Capability "spearhead" should achieve by 2016. Keyword - should.

In general, it turns out that the French president is trying clumsily to bluff. NATO war nothing. From the word - really. This fact is confirmed by the NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. Held in Munich on February 6, 2015 Conference on Security, the one on which Poroshenko allegedly brandished Russian passports, Stoltenberg said bluntly: "NATO does not want confrontation with Russia, quite the contrary."

Personally, I'm such a statement of NATO Secretary General is absolutely not surprised. In such a real-world conditions. For NATO is not something that with Russia, and in general with any any serious enemy to fight does not have capabilities. Neither the military nor political, nor ideological and psychological. Sneakers pounding on the table - yes. Unrequited bomb what some Bedouin in the desert - yes. But to go to war with a serious opponent - absolutely not.