After Putin. The future is always imperfect

[DARPA]

Putin's regime - as a specific historical situation in Russia, that after the final departure of Putin from the political scene will be completely reformat the country. All administrative hierarchy is tied to Putin, it is completely devoid of its own managerial logic or some filters, insuring the system from errors. The same thing happens with the economy, which is actually controlled by Putin's discretionary decisions. This system simply can not exist in a situation of change of ruler, not to mention the change in the method of government. The most glaring example - Chechnya, whose loyalty to Russia is now completely reduced to the personal union of Kadyrov and Putin. There will be Putin - will not be and this union. A thousand times Volodin was right when gave his formula is not Putin - is not Russia.

Talk of "Russia after Putin" has always come down to the exaltation of the future role of some the existing forces (in their forecasts on this score cautious friend was, oddly enough, Kasparov). It is believed that after Putin's power to take collective Bulk or, conversely, some rabid an Imperial, against which Sechin seem liberal. Personally, I am in conversations and online discussions increasingly see that Putin's support is not for its own sake, and hatred of the liberal alternative to his regime. Putin criticized very often, but mainly due to the weakness and indecision, of "liberal." This intention, hidden under the interrogatory-electoral loyalty to Putin, has no representation in politics, so now quite impossible to predict whom the wave of popular anger (erroneously called the people's love) will raise the foot freed Putin (or Putin's) throne.

The situation is aggravated by the outbreak of the "Battle of the refrigerator with a TV." Of course, all the anger over rising prices and desolation on the shelves is catalyzed by Obama and other world behind the scenes. Many err in this respect, but we must admit that it is the West and the "fifth column" most Russians believed guilty of his progressive impoverishment. However, although the bad mood of Russians and could not find a way to criticize the actions of the Putin regime, which led to political and economic isolation of Russia, it is indirectly channeled discontent in other actions of the authorities. Psychologists call this process of substitution. The same situation, I note in passing, develops and energy blockade of the Crimea, which, of course, does not add Crimeans love for Ukraine, but undermines their faith in Russia. And when you consider that the first score and before the blockade was near zero, and the second rolls over, the situation in Ukraine, of course, wins.

In general, a steady decline in incomes of Russians would lead to the fact that the time of Putin's departure countries met in a state of light and brutality with a sense of "us someone betrayed." The role of sensation in the fall of the Soviet Union is difficult to overestimate the fact. who remembers how in '89 simple hard workers, the current support regime (not intellectuals something!) paled when he heard that the car drove out of the District Party Committee, already found two cartons of cigarettes.

In the absence of any political, if not, then at least the social mechanism that duplicates those administrative functions, which are now tied to Putin's vertical of power, Putin's departure will lead to the right ... as if mildly, competition policy and national political elites background of the explosive growth of the irrational and undirected protest activity of society. 90 we will have to go through again. On this I would like to dwell in more detail because there are not only risks, but also of hope, but it's enough for today.