The problems of the Russian economy

[DARPA]

In the first working days in 2016 Russians attention was focused on the dollar and oil prices - already 77 rubles. for US $. and $ 31 per barrel of Brent crude on the morning of January 12. Easy to take these numbers, many thought until recently unreal harder.

You should not assume that this nervousness had nothing to do with our national celebrations. On the contrary, it is directly related to one, although not celebrate yet nationwide, the event - the move to the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin, had happened before the New Year 16 years ago. Because it is the Russian leader, we owe above all the fact that, with bated breath, watching the quotations of oil, because it is his policy and has led to the fact that, except for energy, for the soul of Russia has little left.
What meets the country beginning of the 17th year of the reign of their leader? With an average salary, if translate it into dollars, corresponding to the level of October 2005. With GDP in 2016, which, if it counted as the market rate is close to the 2006 figure. We accept the projected GDP for 2016 in the amount of 77.2 trillion rubles. and the average annual rate of 79 rubles. of US $ .; 2006 to take nominal GDP 26.7 trillion rubles. according to Rosstat, and the average rate of the dollar to 27.17 rubles., according to the Bank of Russia.

He meets with the outflow of capital during the last three years at $ 280 billion. With the military budget has increased over the years of his reign at par value of 7.5, and in US dollars - 4.4 times. With the bureaucracy, finally turned into the ruling class, with hundreds of new heraldic symbols. With two war launched in recent years, with diverging neighbors in the former Soviet Union and damaged relations with key economic partners.
We get up from its knees?

As head of state, Vladimir Putin was lucky. He smiled conditions that propelled oil quotes at $ 28.5 / barrel. in 2000 to $ 102 / bbl. on average for the years 2010-2014 (according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015). Under his leadership proved to people who only wanted to earn, consume and enjoy "getting up off its knees". In such circumstances, Russia could turn if not in the next China, the new Emirates, laying the foundation for economic recovery for several decades. But what has been done in reality?

Let's start with the simplest - with Putin's publicized "drivers of the Russian economy", close to the state corporations. "Gazprom", the big monopolies of the country all these years, led by one of the closest friends of the president, has built (and build) some impressive pipes, but at the same time produced in 2015. The gas is less than in 1999: 414 billion against 545 billion cu. m. It is believed that its power is much larger and growing, the only problem with the demand for Russian gas. But then why is it not arisen, for example, in Qatar, to increase production from 24 billion to 177 billion cubic meters. m and any difficulties with sales not experienced?
"Rosneft" has collected over the years, all possible oil assets - from Yukos to "Itera", bought in 2013, TNK-BP for $ 55 billion, but the now estimated only about $ 34 billion. VEB chief "Institute for Development" - after so many years of hard work by a potential bankruptcy in whose salvation of the state will have to allocate more than 1 trillion rubles. "Russian Technologies" - nothing without military orders, depleting the budget.

If you look at the history of the Russian economy in the Putin era, it is clear that developed almost exclusively non-state sectors: wholesale and retail trade, communications and telecommunications, private banks, construction, commercial services. The state was an economic obstacle.
Fools and roads

The next obvious point - infrastructure. The country, which is experiencing a boom (no matter what generated, even random petrodollars), as a rule, it becomes the first consequence of the construction of highways, high-speed railway lines, bridges and overpasses, the development of energy networks. Look at China, for example.

It happens everywhere, except Russia. Over 16 years have not commissioned a single kilometer of a modern railway track, adapted for high-speed traffic. Roads built in 2014-2015 by 1.2 thousand. Km per year - 4 times less than in 2000. Highway between Moscow and St. Petersburg was still under construction, as in the late 1990s. According to the data of "Gazprom", the level of gasification of Russian settlements for the year rose 0.1% to 65.4%. At this rate the objective of full gasification will be performed at the beginning of XXII century.

For 16 years the increase in power Russian ports was twice less than the increase in transhipment in the port of Shanghai alone. Postings transit cargo along the Northern Sea Route in 2014 were lower than in 1999 (130 thous. Against 460 thousand. T).

Where is rising from its knees? Where is the unity of the Russian territory and its convenience to stay? That as there was no and no. There are only beautiful promises, every year, similar to the ones that were given earlier. Throughout the years of his stay in power, Putin has promised the country, "doubling the GDP" and "slezanie the oil needle". It's funny that the first slogan was voiced in 2003, and we have all the chances to have 2018 back to about the same dollar terms of GDP, which have been in the country at the time.

Overcoming the dependence on oil production is illustrated by these figures: in 1999 the share of oil and gas exports amounted to 39.7%, in 2014 - 69.5%. However, no industrial transformation in Russia has not happened: during all the years of Putin, it was and remains the only one of the emerging markets, where the growth rate of industrial production lagged behind GDP growth.

Where advertised refineries, such as the plant of "Rosneft" in Primorye? Where the production of advanced equipment, medical equipment, medicines, computers or mobile phones? In the majority of these positions a country dependent on imports by 70-100%. If our "partners" want to achieve complete collapse of the Russian economy, it is sufficient to prohibit the import of supplies.
"At random"

Catastrophic results look "reform" of the social sphere and the nature of work of state agencies responsible for ensuring the normal life of citizens. In a country whose coffers bursting with petrodollars, free health care is almost eliminated. All ratings record landslide decline in the quality of secondary education, and higher education institutions have long been factories for the production of people with meaningless diplomas. Even the "calling card" of Putin's Russia - the powerful Ministry of Emergency Situations - can save dozens of people caught in snow drifts far from the city of Orsk. About splicing bureaucracy with crime is not worth remembering: the famous film "The Seagull" for millions of people watched.

Even in foreign policy of Russia too has something to boast. I'm not going to remember Ukraine, which we turned into an enemy, but it is clear that our allies in Central Asia are increasingly inclined to China recently became the main investor in the region. We fenced off from the world by sanctions imposed on all sorts of penance, but it does not frighten anyone. We began a military operation in Syria, but it is already beginning to realize that to be successful it needed a lot of power and money The larger than Russia can afford to apply. But do micromilitarisme theâtrale type of operation in South Ossetia, it is something for which Russia has spent on the military during the years of Putin's rule almost $ 960 billion. (SIPRI Database data 2015) or 80% of its nominal GDP in 2015?

But, of course, the most impressive is how quickly and, it seems, inevitably begins to fall apart imaginary well-being as the contraction of the oil bubble. The Government of the fifth year can not do anything, which led to at least slow down slowdown. It is three years in a row freezes the private pension savings, in fact conducting forced to borrow from citizens. The Reserve Fund, which the authorities were so proud of recent years can be wasted in a year and a half. The first signs of fall in oil prices caused the termination of pension indexation, and, apparently, is not far off drastic cuts in social spending, expressed even in twice devalued rubles.

The country controls a person who talks a lot, but not willing to do almost anything concrete, more than 10 years, relying on positive trends, asked outside. This Sovereign impotence. Authorities are able to waste as many billions, but can not really put any ambitious objectives, any decent shots to choose to deal with them, nor about stimulating business or inspire citizens to anything other than a repetition of trite slogans. Watching constantly declining oil futures, the Russian authorities are in a daze from what you see and hope, it seems, only the eternal Russian "maybe."
author
Vladislav Inozemtsev,
Director of the Center for Post-Industrial Studies