Donbass fate will be decided this summer

[HainanWel.com(e)!]

Yesterday the management of "Gazprom" disconnecting gas put in a very difficult situation the Government of Ukraine. Despite vigorous speech of Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk contributions to prepay become a serious problem for the economy "nezalezhnoy" teetering on the brink of default. And this despite the fact that the "anti-terrorist" operation daily breaches the country's budget.

The main hope of Ukraine - for loans of the International Monetary Fund and other Western banks, issued on the basis of early this year, the economic analysis. At that time, companies and mines of Donbass, providing a significant share of the country's GDP, worked. Today there is a war. Rating agencies Moody `s and S & P in February reduced Ukraine's sovereign rating, bringing it to a value of" negative "or, to put economic slang -" garbage. " At the beginning of the third background "gas war" with Russia and stopped production in Donetsk can be expected in the coming weeks, tightening credit conditions. Quite possible failure of the banks and funds in general from the allocation of money. Output from the Government of Ukraine, only one - cut the "Gordian knot" in the southeast.

In the current situation, time is against Poroshenko and Arseny Yatsenyuk as delay getting credit for this autumn is no longer possible, and enough gas available until November. It must be remembered that in the Ukrainian government has already formed a party "hawks", requiring a victory over the separatists and seeing only the outcome of the power of ATU. At the same time, there are "doves", seeking to find any political solution to the situation. If the Prime Minister Yatsenyuk tore gas talks, and the Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada Oleksandr Turchynov - explicit "hawks", judging by the latest statements of President Poroshenko, who leans to the political negotiations and could pass for a "dove".

Its main task - to run once the economy as part of Ukraine Donbass, even under the conditions of federalization and almost autonomy of Donetsk and Luhansk. But the south-east of it demanded in March-April, now we are talking about the separation.

In recent weeks, except for the destruction of IL-76, fights in Mariupol and constant shelling in the area Kramators'k Slavic significant events at the front did not happen. Hand as if frozen in anticipation of gas negotiations. Now the situation is cleared up - be war.

Problem Ukrainian security officials, sees her party as "hawks" Yatsenyuk - the elimination of the DNI and the destruction of the LC rebels or their displacement beyond the settlements, complete control over the transportation, industrial and social infrastructure. But President Poroshenko such an outcome does not count, so it has a more realistic goal - the destruction of the main opposition forces, after which the Donetsk and Lugansk region of Ukraine back into the conditions of at least partial autonomy and federalization. The main thing - to create a military situation where at the negotiating table, Ukraine will dictate their terms.

You should not assume that a large-scale offensive would begin tomorrow. But put it off for a long time impossible.

The Ukrainian government and the ATO is not much time - after the fall there will be serious problems in the economy. Serious attempts to change the situation is to be expected by the end of June and beginning of July.

Keep in mind that summer yet many problems with logistics support troops. No rain, mud, cold snap, and the troops and equipment can be kept in an open field in camp conditions without heating. But with the end of September already have to look for warm clothes for the soldiers will need to heat the base camps and often cook a hot meal. Therefore complete the operation Ukrainian security officials will have until the end of September. Do not forget that, according to expert estimates, the gas in Ukrainian storage will last until November.

Terms operations fairly short and have to compensate for the lack of time "fiery shaft" artillery fire and air strikes, far more serious than it is now. Home, but the most difficult task for manual ATU - capture, blocking and securing the border with Russia, located in the rear of the LC defense and DNR. Only by closing the border, you can isolate the militia of possible assistance.

At the same time, the volunteers had a real chance not only to stop the ATO, but also force the enemy to negotiate. Problem Donetsk fighters simple - hold the enemy as long as possible and disrupt his plans. If the DNI to autumn and LC can not fall and the border will remain under the control of the militia, this task will be accomplished.

Summer 2014 will be decisive in modern history not only of New Russia and Ukraine, but also Russia, and, in many respects, and the whole of Europe. And events will evolve in the coming days.