9.9.14. Analysis of the overall prospects of the forthcoming Ukrainian army counteroffensive in New Russia from military analyst "colonelcassad"

9.9.14. Analysis of the overall prospects of the forthcoming Ukrainian army counteroffensive in New Russia from military analyst "colonelcassad"

Сообщение DARPA » 10 сен 2014, 05:28

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"The advent of the Donetsk army reached even greater results than originally planned. Exit to Mariupol was dictated rather there had operational emptiness than intent command. Chance to take the city from VSN was but a very short while in triumph and panic of the garrison marched in unison Berdyansk. but the junta managed to break a situation, and by 3 - 4 September cavalry raid here probably had all the chances to fall in protracted urban fighting. Certainly, one can argue, but the fact remains. On the theater of military operations, even bad, but a pause. this allows a few distance away from the daily routine work and look at the whole overall picture as a whole. in the relatively near the beginning of the counter-offensive of the junta nobody doubts. question is its configuration and the direction of impact.

To date, the Ukrainian forces TAU group, relative to conventionally divided into nine major areas of deployment.

Zone A: around 3,100 personnel, 50 tanks, 180 light armored, 100 mortars, 100 (taking into account the allocated units would likely be somewhat less) self-propelled and towed guns of all calibres, 80 multiple rocket launchers. Here are deployed three battalions of territorial defense in full ("Chernigov", "Kharkiv", "Nikolayev") and one company terbatalona "Aydar", two battalion tactical group (one of the 1 Drop, one of the 80 OAEBr), two battalions (at least) the 55th artbrigady battalion of the National Guard. Currently group "responsible" for the entire northern front fas total length of 100 kilometers and up to 60 - 70 kilometers in depth, from happiness to Starobelska.

Area: 2200 officers and men, 90 tanks (probably less two companies recently were moved somewhere. Arrived in their place 28 tanks were most likely not remain in place, and were relocated to other areas), 120 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles , about 100 mortars, 80 guns of all types, 30 MLRS. Area of ​​Responsibility: Borovskoe - Sirotino - south-eastern edge of the agglomeration Syeverodonets'k - Lisicansk - Vrubovka and further Popasnaya. The length of the front line - about 50 - 60 kilometers. Newly deployed here two battalion tactical group. Judging by the number of armored vehicles, most likely from the mechanized brigades. Terbatalon "Sich". Terbatalon "Nikolaev". Battalion of the National Guard.

Zone C: 3600 officers and men, 150 tanks, 250 armored personnel carriers / infantry fighting vehicles, 200 mortars, 130 towed and self-propelled guns, 120 MLRS. It consists of six terbatalonov ("Kiev-2", "Kiev-11", 25 th Battalion of territorial defense, "Donbass", "Kievan Rus", the 42nd battalion of territorial defense) and one company terbatalona "Aydar" two Newly battalion tactical groups (one mechanized, one, apparently, from the 2nd brigade of the National Guard operational). This is one of the largest and most heavily, at the moment, groups of the Ukrainian army. It is concentrated in fairly compact area Popasnaya - Trinity - Debalcevo - Uglegorsk - Svetlodarsk - eastern outskirts of Dzerzhinsk. The length of the contact line of troops - up to 50 kilometers.

Zone D: up to 3,000 personnel and about 100 tanks, 300 (taking into account arrivals over the past 24 hours), light armored vehicles, 80 mortars, 200 guns, 200 MLRS. In the group includes: 3 BTG (one of 1 Drop, two of the visitors for 72 hours, the part number is not yet known), two fully terbatalona ("Artemivs'k", "Shahtersk"), one company "Aydar" battalion of the National Guard, battalion "right sector." Area of ​​Responsibility Dzerzhinsk - Yenakievo - Avdiyivka. The length of the front line - up to 70 kilometers.

Zone E: up to 1,600 people, about 20 tanks, 100 armored vehicles, 30 mortars, 100 guns, 20 MLRS. It consists of one of the BTG 93rd Ombre, a fresh BTG (motorized infantry, arrived 90 hours ago), NG battalion, battalion "SS". The length of the front line is not large - up to 40 kilometers from Avdeyevka to Alenovki. And actually having to hold the position of only two highway M04 and N15. The space between them for large-scale offensive militia is not suitable. This Ukrainian military tested in their own skin in May - June, when they tried to attack, and the positions held militia.

Zone F: 3000, 100 tanks, 200 armored personnel carriers / infantry fighting vehicles, 150 mortars, 140 guns, 100 MLRS. Includes: two companies terbatalona "Shahtersk" Artillery Group artbrigady 23rd battalion of the "right sector", two fresh battalion tactical groups (motorized infantry or the National Guard, which is essentially almost the same), three tank company commander tactical group. Focused most compact. The length of the front line 12 - 15 kilometers between Volnovaha and Novotroitskie.

Zone G: 3200, 50 tanks, 150 armored personnel carriers / infantry fighting vehicles, 120 mortars, 140 guns, 70 MLRS. The second largest group in the area of ​​the APU ATO. To date, the APU here focused newly created 1st operational brigade of the National Guard in full, four terbatalona ("Khortytsya", "Vinnitsa", "Azov", "Kharkiv-1") to two companies terbatalona "Donbass", battalion Task Force 79th airmobile brigade, a company of marines, a battalion of the "right sector," battalion (actually just reinforced consolidated company) the State Border Service of Ukraine. Area of ​​responsibility - the defense of the city of Mariupol. Is considered to be in the environment, but in fact a continuous front Donetsk army has before him only the east and north. West direction, along the highway to Berdyansk, in general, for protected convoys permeable. That is just allowed to Kiev for three days to build up a garrison town almost three times the original.

As a separate zone (Zone D) should be considered two still not abandoned boiler APU in the rear of the Lugansk militia. First - surrounded by grouping the 25 th Airborne Brigade. Second - blockaded in Belorechinsky least reinforced company tactical group of 30 Mechanised Brigade. Formally, they are a few days in the environment. But in fact, almost no loss suffered, as all this time, serious attacks and did not reflect the impact of militia artillery especially something not exposed. That is the technique saved. Is that experience difficulties with the fuel, as well as some difficulties with ammunition and food supplies. If the onset of the Ukrainian army will pass through their areas at the expense encircled can easily compensate for their own losses. In addition, this group is very largely associates of available reserves Lugansk militia than already having a positive impact on the overall tactical situation as a whole.

Strictly speaking, in the rear of New Russia are two of the boiler. Remains of a tank battalion tactical group "sit" for almost two weeks in the area Zhdanovka, and two motorized infantry companies for nearly a month are southwest Deakovo. However, take into account they can hardly be. Marines too far away from any operating lines, immobilized and without assistance of any significant value does not represent. A tank is just too small. In the best case, up to 200 people at 10 - 15 tanks, it is unlikely to date capable of moving independently. Ammunition they probably still there, but at the expense of the desire to actively fight - very serious doubts. Because in the subsequent calculations, these forces will not be considered.

Separate area (Zone J) should be considered district Raisins - Borovaja which is currently being established fixed line of defense on which the withdrawal of troops from all over the left bank of the Seversky Donets. There, apparently assigned to the entire group, recently released from the environment from the territory of the Lugansk airport. The decision to give up control of the left bank is timely and relevant current situation. Guaranteed to keep the area from the action raids and sabotage groups Lugansk militia impossible. At least against the background of the size available to the ATO Staff reserves. At the same time, due to the withdrawal of troops Command of the Ukrainian army could gather from nothing: 2,000, 30 tanks, 100 BMP / BTR, 60 mortars, 50 guns, 40 MLRS. One battalion tactical group of the 1st Tank Brigade (augmented and beefed up after losses in the fighting in July - August), battalion tactical group of the 80th Airmobile Brigade (also get a refill), a battalion of "PS", a battalion of the National Guard, part of the special-purpose (from the 3rd regiment SPN).

Total: 18,000 officers and men, and only in the "front line". In the rear there are up to 3 - 4 thousand. Man in "Slavic" fortified area. Plus parts, occupying "Red Army fortified." Plus quite a large number of territorial battalions of the Interior Ministry, formed from the police. Real fighting force they are not, but patrolling in the rear, ensuring adherence zone ATO, protection and defense of rear roadblocks in 'quiet' areas it is quite on the shoulder. That allows you to not distract these tasks more efficient part. "

"... They are opposed by armed groups Donetsk and Lugansk republics, now concentrated in six major areas. Latter is important for the understanding of the events taking place there seyas and their development in the near future.

Neighborhood - 1, includes basic, but almost all of the forces Lugansk army. Up to 5,000 people, up to 30 tanks and 90 armored vehicles of different, about 100 mortars, 50 guns of all types, 16 MLRS. Is responsible for the defense of the entire northern edge of FAS and the elimination surrounded by groups around the APU Lugansk, as well as for the "security" of the Russian-Ukrainian border and maintaining all border crossing points and the contact line of the LC RF. This area is under attack on the settlement Metalist and Happiness, which connects to the Novojdar. The rate at which liquidated boilers, demonstrate the limitations of Lugansk army.

Neighborhood - 2 is a "zone of responsibility" brigade "Ghost" under the command of Alexei Brain. Controlled area: the right bank of the Seversky Donets Slavyanoserbsk to Sirotino further before May and possibly Irmino. The length of the front line - about 90 kilometers. The brigade consists of 2000 people, 8 - 10 tanks, 50 armored personnel carriers / infantry fighting vehicles, 30 mortars, 30 guns, 10 MLRS.

Neighborhood - 3 is one of the weaknesses of the frontline. The road up to 35 kilometers from Irmino to Faschevki controlled Vsevelikogo Don Cossack Army under the command of Ataman Kozitsyna. Up to 800 people, 2 - 3 tanks, 15 armored vehicles, and 20 mortars. I do not want to say anything bad about them, but I should note, for the past five months of the war, they have three massive strike mechanized units of the Ukrainian army could not stand, and retreated.

Neighborhood - 4, place the most stubborn defense - Gorlivka - Yenakievo. Brigade area of ​​responsibility Igor Bezlera (call sign "Demon"). Two months are stubborn defensive fighting. The length of the front line - 90 kilometers. Up to 2,000 people, no tanks, 25 armored vehicles, 40 mortars, and at least 10 guns.

Neighborhood - 5 Area of ​​Responsibility Donetsk army. Despite the relatively short section of the formal line of contact, about 100 - 120 km, in fact it is controlled almost the entire territory of the People's Republic of Donetsk on line Yenakievo - Red Ray - Deakovo - Amvrosievka - Starobeshevo - Yelenovka. Consists of 14 000 people, 12 - 15 tanks, 100 armored vehicles, 80 mortars, 16 artillery pieces, up to 10 MLRS.

Neighborhood - 6 Grouping "blocking" Mariupol. Contains all of the most capable and well armed of the sun DNR. About 6,000 people, 28 tanks, 90 armored vehicles, 60 mortars, 60 guns, 20 MLRS. On despite the seemingly large number of troops, more than 2,500 people forced to use for grouping classes garrison towns around Mariupol, and monitoring of two key highways connecting Mariupol from Donetsk. Including important transport hub in the settlement Telmanovo, defense and blocking Volnovakha boiler southwest froze.

The current disposition of the parties suggests several obvious conclusions. The current truce is fragile and does not suit both sides. Because it will only persist until the end of the rearrangement of the Ukrainian army. Given replenishment obtained in the third wave of mobilization, the total number of forces ATO again brought to 55 - 60 thousand. Persons. Of these, 20 - 30 thousand. - In the first line. The total number of militia in both Republics is estimated at 29 - 30 thousand. Persons. But not in the first line, and everything. This means that the advantage in manpower Kiev fell to two-time and continues to decline. Thus, he needs to attack until the forces are not caught up in numbers. Results of past battles have shown that the militia greatly exceeds the APU on the total combat effectiveness with equal numbers of units. Affects the advantage of motivation, initiative and a better quality of command. So, the options have no special Kiev. If you do not attack now, do not attack have never been.

In turn, the militia is also in difficult operational situations. Significant in size and composition of weapons, besides consisting of the most moving parts and experienced group of forces is under Mariupol actually in the corner formed by the coastline of the Azov Sea and the Russian-Ukrainian border. Room for maneuver almost no specifics in mind the terrain and features of the topology of the local road network. Moreover, it is a hundred kilometers from the main base area - Donetsk - and actually hangs on a single supply lines - Highway Donetsk - Novoazovsk. Reaching forty kilometers west of the parallel highway H20 Donetsk - Mariupol in many places is actually the front edge of the front line, and the area Volnovaha - Novotroitskoe (or even almost before the Congress on Dokuchaievsk) all intercepted Ukrainian troops. There is a zone of deployment of the strike group APU (Zone F), which can not be considered as an H20 ​​supply lines, even in theory. Hence, there is a marked similarity to the "southern claw", defeated the host in July. Only now, in a mirror image.

A careful comparison of the forces concentrated Ukrainian command in different parts of the front shows that it is from past defeats some positive experience has learned and is no longer trying to be everywhere at the same time strong. Of the nine zones, one is compelled to ambush regiment - Zone N. One - Zone J, - can only be regarded as a strategic reserve. Four zones (A, B, E, G) are purely defensive in nature. June fights showed that Donetsk side Kurakhovo can be taken only at the cost of unacceptable losses for the APU in time, manpower and technology. It's like beating his forehead against the concrete wall. In turn, the topography here is such that allows you to defend the right FAS "Krasnoarmeysky fortified" with relatively small forces. Around the same purpose has Zone B. Its goal is to prevent a breakthrough in the militia agglomeration Syeverodonets'k - Lisicansk and then exit on the right bank of the Seversky Donets Krasny Liman and Svjatogorsk bypassing Slavic - Kramatorsk fortified. The position is also quite stable, as is actually reduced to the defense of a highway. In terms of the number of defensive military groups here even more superfluous, that can be considered one of its battalion tactical groups as a tactical reserve for the relief of possible threats in Zone A or operational reserve to exploit success in Zone C. Zone A Problem - to restrain the entire offensive army Lugansk , tie her fight to block the possibility of its maneuver forces and armed groups prevent the output LC on the left bank of the Seversky Donets. It should be recognized that all your needs, this group manages quite successfully. Happiness is held firmly. Militia attacks recorded in the suburbs, yet located on the right bank of the river. On the left bank of the Lugansk army can not go over. None of the Slavic or east, in the village of Lugansk. The same applies to the entire length of the right bank of the Seversky Donets River in the direction of right up Lysychansk.

We should also consider the Zone G - defensive area of Mariupol. Formally, it is surrounded by. In fact, strong and almost continuous position Donetsk troops are located just to the east and north. To be more precise - just to the east. The north side is more represented by individual militia garrison occupying settlements. Garrisons course toothed and providing resistance, but do not consider their positions analogue of the Brest Fortress, followed by the fight to the last drop of blood. From the west, along the highway to Berdyansk, Donetsk army represented by only a few advanced patrols in key towns, but not entrenched in them. Except perhaps Mangushev where there is a kind of front line length of 2 - 3 km. Needless to highway convoys junta passable. At least convoys of supply and fresh reserves from Berdyansk to Mariupol come without much loss. Individual-automatic machine-gun fire on the route for convoys unpleasant, but it is not fatal. Thus, Mariupol group is sufficient to organize a sustainable defense of the city and even equal in forces and means, offensive capabilities Zone 6 Donetsk army. MAT 3200, compared to about 3,500 of the Area 6 (subject to providing them with the forces for the implementation of the operational scope of Mariupol and control supply lines). Which allows its use as an anvil on which it is possible to flatten the enemy external blows.

Actually, it is the headquarters of the ATU and intends to do, judging by the created "in an open field," thick (more than 3,000 people, about 100 tanks, 200 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, lots of guns, mortars, and MLRS) with a tiny group, just 15 kilometers portion front in the area Volnovakha. Zone F is the shock and the shock only. For anything else, it is simply not needed. Topography and contours of the road network here are as follows. that portion of Volnovakha actually to Mariupol can not in any way defend. All power to the west of the upcoming DNR forced to move only in Berdyansk, which is now being built long strip of Defense with concrete pillboxes. The second direction through Rozovka no less securely closed by the local garrison. So Zone F and there is nothing no one is defending. While in terms of onset, it has a very broad prospect.

If in general, is very similar, Kiev generals realized that all Novorossia swallow all at once they can not afford. We must try to smash it in pieces. Despite the clearly weaker militarily LC, primarily to eliminate should Donetsk. Yes, and this contributes to the road network. Fall of Donetsk is likely to fall and throughout New Russia as vodinochku Lugansk, it is clear stand against the junta can not. Make it turn only one way. First surrounding and eliminating troops in Area 6. Most likely - operative technique, known as the "hammer and anvil".

Anvil will be Mariupol. His strength is sufficient to provide a strong defense. And even if it will be able to break through the Donetsk team, the 6 th. Soldiers in an area of ​​284 square meters. kilometers and a population of half a million people just lost. With all their tanks, guns and multiple rocket launchers. Enter the city they can only be secured by the rears, but not under the blows of the hammer the other groups. At the same time, the withdrawal of these troops back to Donetsk is only possible on one line, the highway Donetsk - Novoazovsk, which is already under severe pressure from parts of the APU.

The fact that they are relatively easy to intercept it, according to three facts. The first - the recent raid in Ukrainian armored group Telmanovo. Of course, the role played by its misleading truce. However, it is recognized that without it she would have this settlement certainly took. Whether then managed to keep - a separate issue. But that took - there are no two ways can. The second - the sequel to "swim" in the settlement of the boiler Froze. When any plans Command APU, it is inevitably on the way offensive. Therefore there are 200 - 350 people, ie Consider battalion automatically included in the upcoming group and strengthens it, bringing its strength up to 3.5 thousand. persons. In almost complete operational voids currently observed between regions 5 and 6, Hammer Zone F undoubtedly overturns the position of the army at the Donetsk Volnovakha, goes on the road and T0512 through Granite, guaranteed to take Telmanovo. Now Granite road bridge across the river Kalmius blown. But the Ukrainian army has repeatedly demonstrate the adequacy of their training of engineer battalions. At least the Seversky Donets month ago she crossed successfully.

Telmanovo loss puts the whole group of the Area 6 on the brink of destruction and forces her to an early departure from the fighting. Even if successful, this large loss in the most combat-ready, from the most valuable in the battle against the troops. Plus the loss of most of the accumulated heavy weapons. In any case, the blockade of Mariupol, even operative, is removed, which immediately makes the whole group G from the defensive zone to the offensive. With all the consequences, negative for the DNR. On good, the whole group of the Area 6 now should begin to divert Donetsk, but it is impossible for political reasons.

In any scenario, in the south, Armed Forces General Staff DNR will have to urgently create a solid defense through Mospino - Amvrosievka. At least until the end of the withdrawal of troops from the Area 6 as a maximum - to ensure retention Telmanovo, and froze the entire route Donetsk - Novoazovsk. In general, this force is Donetsk. But this is not all threats, conceived by the General Staff APU. Absolutely clear perspective drawing troops junta decisive offensive strikes from zones D and C. Without having to defend Amvrosiivka district, Donetsk army repel them, even with the loss, but it can. But enough power when it will be necessary to help the Area 6 - becomes a major issue.

In the area of ​​Gorlovki Ukraine has three main options. The most simple and obvious - converging attacks on Yenakievo finally cut brigade Bezlera and fully tighten it in the city. If successful, the enemy, it will have no other choice but to leave and Gorlovka break "to the mainland." Likely to Donetsk. The creation of its forces "front line" to the southeast Yenakievo not count. To this there is no necessary conditions, and in the open field artillery Ukrainian destroy it pretty quickly. Furthermore, since there are still remnants of tanks tank battalion APU. If it breaks through to the at least one supply convoy, they will regain their mobility and begin active operational actions that make this new "front line" useless and unstable. Thus, the fall Gorlovki leads not only to political and media success, but also creates a total front line operational Novorossia hole slowness to 30 kilometers of the weakest line interaction armies DNR and LC. Kirov District - Zhdanovka - Lower Jug becomes "a draw." Thereby forming operational void almost to Zugres and Harcizskoye. War is not like emptiness. Vaughn, DNR is not going to take Mariupol, but emptiness sucked to the shore of the Azov already 6 thousand. Donetsk soldiers. The same will happen inevitably to this void. Ukrainian mechanized infantry has all the chances to get to Harcizskoye from the north at a time when a large part of the reserves of the Area 5 will repel APU line Mospino - Amvrosievka. Moreover, the threat is there, even without a complete environment Gorlovki. That creates a second variant of the onset of the three.

The third option is the impact on the area of Thorez Debalcevo. In general, it looks adventurous, if not to take into account the following circumstances. Bezler Zone With not a threat. Only individual small subversive groups, which is quite tolerable. Action teams "Ghost" Alexei Brain communicate easily enough troops battle groups in zones A and B. The Cossacks frontal impact of tanks and mechanized infantry is not likely to survive. This opens up at least two directions for offensive action.

Firstly, the support to strike zone D Torez. Task doable and, most worryingly, the current configuration of forces - attainable. Prize, if successful, is a complete operational and, more importantly, the tactical environment Donetsk. With guaranteed cutting of all lines of its supply. And, in this case, the Ukrainian side will be not much to fear deblocking strikes to hand LC. In Lugansk militia for this simply does not have sufficient strength. Surrounded Donetsk do not even need to be fully storm. Without supply it will last a maximum of 5 - 7 weeks.
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