Kiev breaks in the last fight

Модератор: zlata

Kiev breaks in the last fight

Сообщение DARPA » 10 сен 2014, 15:59

Despite the progress made on September 5 cease-fire agreement in Kiev, it seems, continue to prepare for war. Adviser to the Minister of Internal Affairs Arsen Avakov Zorian Shkiryak September 9 at his page on the social network "Facebook" reported that now there are planned regrouping and strengthening of Ukrainian units, and in the area of ​​so-called "anti-terrorist operation" pulled heavy equipment.
Such actions Shkiryak justify preparation for a possible attack from Russia. However, during a military operation Ukrainian troops in their reports do almost every day reflected the "Russian aggression", however, no evidence of "invasion" is not provided.

Head Shkiryak - Interior Minister Arsen Avakov also admits that being build up forces. "Mariupol is and will be Ukrainian. Currently strengthened. Announced additional troops there. Including 1st Operational Brigade National Guard under "- he wrote on 7 September.

On the part of the militia constantly receiving messages that Kiev pulls troops into the zone "ATO". "At Debalcevo came 32 new tanks. In a tank of Artemovska accompanied by thirteen tanks came 15 "Shylock," seven "Points-U", six units "Grad" one unit "Twister" - said the militia headquarters on 7 September.

Both sides regularly accuse each other of violating the truce. For example, September 9 DNR representatives accused Ukrainian military of deliberately undermining the bridge in the south of Donetsk region. Ukrainian headquarters were not in debt - he claimed a violation of the ceasefire by militias in settlements Lower Jug, Avdiyivka, Popasnaya, Nikishin, Maori, Kirov and Faschevka.

It is impossible not to recall the recent high-profile statement of the leader "Block Poroshenko" Yuriy Lutsenko that Kiev agreed with NATO countries on the supply of deadly weapons. Representatives of the Western defense departments have denied this claim, and on September 9 and he Lutsenko said he did not understand what he is talking. But, as he said on this occasion the Chairman of the State Duma Sergei Naryshkin, "smoke without fire."

Aggressive statements by politicians and the shaky situation in the East, forcing experts to talk about what awaits Donbass new escalation of the conflict. Military analyst Vladislav Shurigin believes that this can happen in a week.

- It is obvious that none of the parties has not solved their problem in a military conflict. Kiev was unable to establish control over the rebellious provinces and defeat, as they believe "illegal armed groups". DNR and LC did not deter the entire perimeter of the lost territories, and only started to fight for them. Therefore, none of the parties really is not interested in ending the war. This is a kind of temporary truce for a breather and prepare a new phase of hostilities.

"SP": - When can the new intensification of the conflict occur?

- I think, in a period of a week to ten days.

"SP": - So fast?

- The fact that the delay of this situation is also impossible. There is a race against time, everyone wants to mobilize their forces and not allow the enemy a good foothold.

"SP": - To this respite is more at hand?

- The truce was necessary to Kiev, because in the previous step, he suffered a crushing defeat and got nothing but huge losses. Therefore, he was terribly in need of a break to take the defeated army. Now the Ukrainian side will try to take revenge. For militia cease-fire was not necessary, although they need to take a breath. It was profitable and Russia to demonstrate that it was in favor of peace in the region and does everything that he has arrived.

"SP": - Who will be the initiator of the cease-fire?

- Most likely, there will be some sort of combat situation, and one of the units got involved in the fight. Actually, such a collision and is currently being constantly, but shall not be of a serious nature. Both sides of the time trying to hold back. But when the time is right, will Poroshenko and with a sad face to say that Ukraine has sought all his soul to the world, but they imposed war. Inability of the militia, so Kiev forced to start fighting again.

But I just accept that the reverse scenario can occur when the militias will claim that they are forced to fight, which they are imposed. In this case, it does not matter, it's casus belli. And the West would jump at the next occasion to continue the pressure on Russia.

"SP": - In the event of renewed military operations whether NATO countries to arm Kiev, as he said Yuriy Lutsenko?

- Already, the West supplied equipment and machinery to ensure: vests, helmets, vehicles. The next step weapons, as Ukraine has almost exhausted its reserves and forced to withdraw from the warehouses of the technique of 4-5. EU starts collecting throughout Eastern Europe remains of Soviet technology, and the United States will pay for it. There is a very profitable business.

The fact that NATO countries are now excuses from words Lutsenko, of course. No one wants to be caught by the hand. After all, they have been and are mutually beneficial business with Russia, and to recognize that they supply military equipment Ukraine - then even harder to configure the Kremlin against himself.

"SP": - How long will the new phase of the military operation?

- Ukraine has no strength for a long war. Previous phase lasted two months, but he went through all the stages from sluggish polupolitseyskogo punitive conflict to full-scale war, in which Kiev and was soundly defeated. Now, if there is a completion technique, for a month of fighting it may be enough, but everything will depend on the control. Until now, Ukrainian command showed his absolute incompetence and "skill" to lay the land of unlimited number of your own people and technology. If the command remains the same, and could end up in three weeks.

It seems to me that the next truce is already fixed. This agreement does not define the boundaries of New Russia, but following a peace treaty can do it.

Ukrainian military analyst Denis Seleznev also convinced that before the cold Kiev take another attempt to crush the militia.

- Although I do not know very well Shkiryak biography, I remember a few years ago he was on all the posters in Kiev promised good revenge streets and paint fences. I can not imagine how it was in the power block. This is a swindler, but he expresses the sentiments of his department. And if he makes such statements, then they still want war and victory. This is not surprising, because the current situation does not suit Kiev. Most likely, before the cold weather will be another round of military operations, and it will start within a week or two.

"SP": - What can the Ukrainian troops?

- Approximately clear where they will be abused. They will try to cut off the rebel groups in the area of Mariupol, grab Telmanovo and exit to the Russian border. Also, they will advance to the north of Lugansk, resume shelling of the city, try again to take the district Metalist, especially since Luganskoe militia rather weak. The third area - on Debalcevo, they will try to keep this a springboard and keep under fire around the city.

"SP": - Maybe there is hope even for the conservation of the conflict?

- Military propaganda in the media to convince people that we need to continue the war. They think that there is the Russian army, which need to crush, to smash. All summer Ukrainian society fed with promises of a quick victory. Impressed by these triumphant reports in Kiev themselves believe that they can take over.

In these political grounds and they started going forward, continually throw in the battle of people and equipment. If they continue to adhere to such tactics, they can succeed at some points. For example, partially block the militia to return to their positions under Lugansk, to increase the presence of Donetsk and declare it a great victory in time for the parliamentary elections.

But the problem is that another such attack, and Kiev will remain the army. More precisely, there will be no art, and the military will, at best, driving around in jeeps, as in Somalia. And some military tactics Kiev had before - they just went ahead and threw the fight all the forces.

"SP": - Could Kyiv to achieve long-term success in the case of a new attack?

- If they go ahead, they will lose. This can be judged by the way ended the previous campaign. And if the militia at this point will form some sort of reserve, they will be able to launch an attack on Zaporizhzhya or the Kharkov region. After all, Kiev is not enough, not only technology, but also people. They again pull together the forces that fought the previous months - 79 th, 72 th Brigade. They form a group, roughly speaking, is hit or miss. But these troops almost no one. If these groups fall into the "pot" and will be broken, the militia can choose any region for the offensive.

What will happen after that, I do not know. Perhaps the political crisis, riots and probable collapse of Ukraine. This operation - the last chance to Kiev, but do not know what they expect. Perhaps the fact that the fighting will get stuck and will go into a long step, and then winter comes and something happens.

"SP": - If we talk about the militia, if they can not be initiated termination of the armistice?

- I think it's possible. Some commanders have already displayed a dissatisfaction that half of Donbass is not in their hands, and generally did not agree on the agreement with Kiev. Now the advantage on the side of the militia - if earlier Kiev was a great advantage in numbers, but now the balance of forces up to two-fold.

And one more circumstance. At first it was a question that Ukrainian troops were withdrawn to a certain distance from the cities, as proposed by Vladimir Putin. But they not only moved, but tried under the guise of a truce to improve their position. I think waiting for the first militia attack by the Ukrainian army.

"SP": - So, you avoid the possibility of further negotiations?

- The problem is that the current peace plan Poroshenko is no different from the ultimatum, which in April pushed the Donbas Turchinov. Since then, the Ukrainian army, without exaggeration, half lost art. But even after these losses Poroshenko puts an ultimatum, as if now April 2014 The policy says that the war will continue. They believe they can win, then make another attempt to do so.

Chief Editor of "National Defense" Igor Korotchenko believes that the West is also interested in the power and the suppression of Donbass will help Kiev weapons and equipment, but not high-precision weapons.

- Everyone who takes a normal position, of course, interested in a durable ceasefire. But there are circumstances in which Kiev may violate its obligations. Often, this is already happening on the part of individual battalions that do not comply with the order to cease fire and do the same that before - fire peaceful purposes.

Poroshenko went to negotiate because Ukraine suffered a sensitive military defeat. But not everyone accepted it. There is a "war party" that wants to carry out an operation against the Donbass. This, including the Ministry of Interior of Ukraine. I remind you that the National Guard is subordinate to the Minister of Internal Affairs, so Avakov and his advisers - people who are not interested in a truce. They need war.

"SP": - What should happen to Kiev won the "party of peace"?

- You know, the "party of peace" in the Ukraine is not. The more sensitive will be blows to the Ukrainian army, the faster the official Kiev is ready to negotiate. These attacks were made, but security forces still want war. Only a massive defeat would force them to recognize the realities in which dwells Ukraine. The country is in a state of decay, but there is a price too high a price to civilians.

"SP": - Could the West affect Kiev?

- The West will not affect the Kyiv as interested in a single, unitary Ukraine, which in the future should become a member of NATO. They do not need the special status of the NPT and the LC, they want the most rigid military operation and the suppression of dissent. Fight for Poroshenko they certainly will not, but in every way his push for war will not cease. Another thing is that the resources to continue the military operation there was very little.

"SP": - Will the West to supply Ukraine weapon?

- Ukraine has already received through secret channels of the old Soviet weapons from the former Warsaw Pact. These supplies go, but the new weapon nobody Poroshenko will not, because the Ukrainian military are unable to use high-precision weapons. They hardly even exploit Soviet equipment 30 years ago. We see what is imprecise weapons in their hands. Among the new weapons Ukraine is simply not ready, they have neither the training nor the material base.
DARPA
 
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