THE POSSIBILITY OF the Russian army in the southern and central direction of Donbass, which aims to break through the corridor in Crimea through South

THE POSSIBILITY OF the Russian army in the southern and central direction of Donbass, which aims to break through the corridor in Crimea through South

Сообщение DARPA » 07 ноя 2014, 21:05

In recent days, more and more talk on the Internet about the possible occurrence of the Russian army in the southern and central direction of Donbass, which aims to break through the corridor in Crimea through southern Ukraine, as well as the expansion of the territory of the "DNR" in order to discard the Ukrainian army from Donetsk 30 -40 kilometers.

Ostensibly in the Russian General Staff considering capture Crimean canal and Zaporizhzhya, in order to provide water to the Crimea and Ukraine disconnect, strangle her industry. Currently, up to 20 thousand Russian soldiers and about 15 thousand mercenaries in the territory of Donbass, controlled by the rebels. Be clear and dispel fears - the forces of the Russian army to break through and create a corridor in Crimea is not enough and it is unlikely in the near future, these plans are feasible, writes Victor Shevchuk in his article for the newspaper "Russian Jew."

Southern direction evidently covered a minimum of 3-4 teams of the armed forces of Ukraine (APU) with the support of the artillery regiment. Central direction is, as the name parts, flashed in the media not fewer military. The structure of power in each of the sectors such apparently - 2 mechanized brigades, one armored, one airmobile. Plus, the entire division and self-propelled artillery battalion (regiment) towed artillery. Also in each of the areas of division RZSO.

In southern and central air direction cover forces air command center - 6 air defense battalion C300 in Dnepropetrovsk, 3 air defense battalion Buk1m near Mariupol, more than 40 combat aircraft (Mig29, Su 27 and Su 24), and South - C300 7 divisions and 30 Su25 near Odessa, Nikolaev and Kherson.

The second echelon of the APU, located at a distance of the order of 70-100 km from the forward edge of the defense is likely to consist of an operational reserve command in an amount of not less than 6-8 teams. The troops of the second echelon, this murky mystery - their number, location, internal structure completely unknown.

It can be assumed that the troops of the second echelon consist of units of mixed type MAT and the National Guard, which give heavy weapons as tanks and armored personnel carriers. Thus, in the conflict zone in the central and southern direction the APU and the National Guard may have at their disposal about 14 teams and up to 10 separate battalions (territorial defense volunteer), covered 80 air defense missile launchers medium and long range, and 70-75 aircraft. Personnel strength of the ground forces after retrofitting to 2500 in the brigade or all 35,000 plus up to 5,000 volunteer battalions and battalions of territorial defense.

Also there are provisions in the district of Odessa, Nikolaev, Kherson region, which is estimated to amount to about 30,000 personnel. These powers cover the Crimean direction.

If Russia will throw their aircraft as it will lose aircraft?
According to the statistics of local military conflicts on 1 air defense battalion, on average, about 5-6 shot down enemy planes, then the loss will amount to about 50% of the combat capability of the complex air defense. That is up to 50% of lesions Ukrainian air defense, she will have time to shoot down some 75 enemy aircraft. If we add to this air battles in which the alleged training of pilots and about equal opportunities, the losses amount to about another 30-35 aircraft. This should also add and air defense systems, which are directly in the military. It's about 40-50 self-propelled air defense system "Osa", "Tunguska" and "Strela-10", 100 MANPADS "Strela-2" and "Needle", about 100-150 mm towed ZSU 2h23. They can cause damage to at least another 10-15 aircraft.

Thus, up to 50% loss of defense of Ukraine in the area of a possible invasion of Russia will lose about 120 of their combat aircraft in case of intensive use of air for a week of fighting.
How many Russian armored vehicles to lose?
Unfortunately, we do not have precise data on the number of anti-tank weapons in the zone of ATO, but is concentrated to approximately a third of the total number of anti-tank artillery and anti-tank systems. And it's about 300 different types of ATRA and 170-200 units to anti-tank artillery. Also armed with several thousand military and 23 RPG 7 RPG and recoilless guns "Rapier", which the skillful use can affect sighting armored targets at ranges of up to 300-400 meters. DShK heavy machine guns, "Utes" and KPVT, automatic grenade launchers - all applicable against lightly armored vehicles and road transport.

Probability of hitting a single shot of ATRA one goal is about 80% in terms of battle, guns - up to 20%. Probability of defeat of the RPG about 10-15% in heavy combat.
In the area of ATO is probably about 20 MI24 helicopters with antitank missiles "Storm", a destructive force is up to 6000 meters in the daytime. The average ratio of destroyed armored vehicles on one antitank helicopter is about 10-15: 1.

The potential loss of Russian armored vehicles in case of attempts to break through the corridor to the Crimea could be around 600-700 units until reducing the combat capability of Ukrainian units by 50%.
Loss of personnel

Estimated loss of personnel in the assault fortified positions, usually three times the loss defenders. At the same time in order to break through the operation of the Russian army could have development, you need to derail and 30% of the Ukrainian front in the area of ATO.

Accordingly, it is the destruction of communications, which defended approximately 6000 military first echelon. In order to derail the front (80% loss of combat capability of defense), in these places of Russian troops and mercenaries, whose fighting capacity is low, have to lose up to 12 thousand dead and wounded. And with the onset and development of a meeting with the second echelon of Ukrainian troops, losses amount to no less, and perhaps a greater number as the enemy troops come under strong flanking attacks Ukrainian army all over. But even if the mutual losses in counter strike 1: 1, the Russian army to break through the corridor will lose about 15 thousand dead and wounded until a 60% loss of combat capability of the Ukrainian military. This is without taking into account the fact that, most likely, a large part of the Russian army troops would be in the region of superiority Ukrainian aviation and air defense, and it will increase the loss.

In such a situation of potential losses amount to about 25-30 thousand Russian soldiers and mercenaries killed and wounded during the first week of hostilities. BUT - after a week in the Ukrainian army is already formed and thrown additional reserve troops to repel an attack on the south, most likely composed of 4-5 teams, taken from other areas, and up to 30-40 units of aviation. That the flank attack from the North will break the enemy's communications on a narrow corridor. To counteract the third tier APU will have to introduce additional second echelon troops, appropriate amount of losses that can reach 50% of personnel in repelling flank attacks immediately. And it's still about 6000 killed and wounded.

Thus the Russian army only for the first two weeks to lose about 35 thousand killed. However, even in the case of retention corridor flanking attacks would continue and later because of the strong stretching of enemy communications and a convenient base for a counter and a counter offensive. This, again, every day hundreds of lives. Month of such a war, it is extra 5-6 thousand killed and wounded.

What is the result?
The Russian operation to break through and create a land corridor to the Crimea, and the expansion of territory seized by militants in the Donbass, will cost more than 40 thousand dead and wounded Russian soldiers, more than 120 combat aircraft, 700 armored vehicles just a month of hostilities.
This is more than the Soviet Union lost in Afghanistan for 10 years of hostilities. And if you sum the previous losses (according to different data only up to 4500 killed Russian soldiers and mercenaries) - more than the losses of the USSR in any military conflict in the time after the Second World War. And while the Russian troops will be under the constant threat of a powerful counterattack Ukrainian army from the North, which sooner or later will be held.
summary

And if there are such losses, and subsequent severe sanctions ambitions Kremlin politicians? Not to commit suicide if their own people pushing Putin's team? When tens of thousands of families in Russia will be left without husbands, fathers, children, when the city streets are littered with legless and armless disabled when they go back thousands of funerals with the diagnosis "was killed on the teachings" or "myocardial infarction"?

Any sane person looking at these numbers, understand that attempt to expand military action, trying to boost aggression will lead to the death of the Russian state, its economy, and then the political component in the next few months.
DARPA
 
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