Economic collapse of Ukraine

[DARPA]

Yesterday was published the interim report of the NBU (National Bank of Ukraine) on the state of affairs. As of November 1, 2014 the volume of international reserves of Ukraine is 12.587 billion dollars. Even a month before gold reserves amounted to 16.385 billion for the month and decreased by 3.798 billion.

Foreign exchange reserves were spent on a few items of expenditure: the repayment of loans coupon "Naftogaz" (not to be confused with debt for gas!) To intervene in the interbank market, with the Europeans on the calculations for gas supply (not Russian Europeans, and the debt is not traded only prepayment) and the current portion of the national debt in favor of the EU and the IMF. And the new "European family" Ukrainians do not even thought to defer payments, despite the dire state frankly Ukrainian Finance.
That is, the reduction of gold reserves occurred before the start of the calculations with "Gazprom" on the results of tripartite agreements. Accordingly, after the start of the new accounting period "Gazprom" has received from the Ukrainian gold reserves of 1.45 billion dollars, and their present volume is equal to 11.137 billion (not counting those 5-10 million, which NBU daily spends on the interbank market). And to be another tranche of the gas debt, then you need to be achieved within the framework of tripartite agreements still pay about half a billion advance payment for the delivery of 4 billion cubic meters of gas.

The EU, in spite of all the hints from the transparent mode of Kiev, instead of Ukraine refused to pay for gas. Why pay more and have to National Bank of Ukraine of its vanishing reserves.

So, of the remaining 11.137 billion reserves of about 9.9 billion - is car loans NBU, its debt to itself (that nobody wants to buy even a crazy 16.5% in foreign currency), ie the dummy and fiction.

The real volume of the remaining gold reserves in Ukraine - about 1.2 billion dollars. This is not enough to pay a prepayment for gas (barring a miracle).

Total $ 1.2 billion, which should, according to the monetary financial system, provide about 290 billion hryvnia mass. Divide one by the other, and you get a realistic rate of hryvnia to the dollar.

Even the day before all of Kiev "experts" and "economists" amicably predicted that the rate will not exceed 15 hryvnia per dollar. Such as "not to escalate the panic." On Friday, this threshold has been overcome - the rate of purchase / sales on the interbank market amounted to 14.8 by the end of the auction / 15.2.

A panic too late. Panic made sense when the patient was struggling in convulsions with a temperature of 41 degrees. And now he's dead simple, and it can only be stated. Taking off his hat and reciting «Johnny, I hardly knew ya».
Those experts oath and falsely claimed that no reason for the growth rate to 30 hryvnia per dollar "no reason". Now let pray that he is at this level at least delayed, because a realistic course has 1 to 200, with the prospect get skyrocket.
The prospect of the next couple of months - it's not even a repeat of the early nineties (when it was "damn the Soviet legacy," which could be a long time to eat away), and the sample hyperinflation in Germany of the twenties, when the money in the stores took on weight.

That you understand the full depth of the tragedy with the Ukrainian economy, I'll give you a few more facts:

- Poland is planning in 2015 to allocate aid to Ukraine as much as 6 million;

- Tymoshenko believes that the hryvnia falls because of the additional issue (and not because of the lack of gold reserves, in fact);

- In the newly elected parliament continues "koalitsiada" when Maidana parties can not be divided between a portfolio and spheres of influence. They just do not understand the real situation. None of them.

The diagnosis is simple and irrefutable: Euromaidan killed Ukraine. Killed her integrity, killed her laws killed her economy.

At best, the remains of failed state Ukraine will soon be brought under direct external control (as it would make Greece a couple of years ago). Better for people who would otherwise have to survive in the cold chthonic hell.