Something I recently inundated questions about how to escape from the crisis, whether to invest in the currency, which bank safer

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Something I recently inundated questions about how to escape from the crisis, whether to invest in the currency, which bank safer

Сообщение DARPA » 10 апр 2015, 04:39

Something I recently inundated questions about how to escape from the crisis, whether to invest in the currency, which bank reliability, etc. Guys, I have cho, financial analyst, or what? I am the same man in the street, just like you. The most that I can do - to share personal experiences in saving banknotes from inflation-devaluation-crises.

But first political information of a general nature. In March tyrnete wave of hysterical optimism. PM me the whole wall and VK zasrali links to some Blomberg, who allegedly wrote that "Putin's economic team works miracles", "impact of sanctions on Russia west hardly felt" and that "the first time since July 2014 foreign exchange reserves RF grow. "

Finally, trolls zaibali I succeeded, and I read the text of the link. No, I do not read a free interpretation of the Kremlin propagandonov, I prefer the original. So, in the original article called Putin's Economic Team Plays Houdini, I would translate as "Putin's economic team plays like Houdini." Harry Houdini - a famous magician who does not miracles, and masterly deceiving the viewer. Agree, the difference between a miracle worker and great deceiver. In fact Bloomberg called our government adroit liar, with which I disagree: the power can only deceive those who delude myself happy.

Well, let us take, for example, "the growth of Russia's international reserves." Open Statistics CBR and observe the following picture:

January - gold reserves declined by $ 9 billion;

February - gold reserves fell by $ 16 billion;

March - gold reserves declined by $ 4 billion;

Where growth? I do not notice it stop. Yes, some days inventory "increased". I write in quotes, because the euro has grown up a bit against the dollar, and thus foreign exchange reserves, nominated in dollars, increased by 1.2 billion, according to Bloomberg. This is one of the focuses in the spirit of Houdini, by which "Putin's economic team works wonders." But kremlepropaganda quoted article very selectively, and that the "experts" have not noticed. As "not notice" they send the main article: no tricks will not help the Kremlin to avoid collapse. Thus, the author Leonid Bershidsky leads estimate economic expert Anders Aslund: "Russia for the second year loses more than $ 10 billion per month, which means that the real stock crisis erupted in the third quarter." Bershad only cautiously suggests that this may not happen in due time, if oil prices go up.

On a personal note: Iranian factor obviously plays against the positive scenario in the oil markets, and the factor of Yemen, which has pushed up oil quotes last week, does not promise to be long-term. Although, of course, the war - it is unpredictable.

Pessimistic and experts Bloomberg, who on average forecast a decline in the Russian economy by 4%. Next Bershatsky quite ruthlessly down the Russian Federation, said that for a country as large as some have serious economy, for which the most significant are the external factors, such as the war in Yemen (and Ukraine), the state of the US national debt and world oil prices. Oil dependence - a verdict for Russia.

And when Bershatsky began to praise Putin, I just cried from laughter: he praised him for what he ... kept the openness of the economy of Russia. Well, well, whenever the economy of Russia "opens", all inevitably ended in failure. In the last century happened two global economic catastrophe caused by the open - in the beginning of the century, resulting in the Russian Empire collapsed, and in the late '80s, which led to the demise of the USSR. And now the American journalist says, "Good, Waldemar, gud, let more openness!" And tuporogie Kremlin propagandony accept such praise at face value. I'm a-ve.

Openness of the economy for a strong country means that the capital tend to go all over the world. Openness to weak country means only one thing - run out of capital, which makes it even weaker. Here is a concrete illustration of this law in the past year, the outflow of capital from Russia amounted to a record for postsovkovyh years $ 157 billion.

Openness of the economy means that have sovereign financial system weak country can not by definition. Yes, propaganda hype about the fact that the ruble will soon become a global currency that Russia abandons the dollar in international trade, etc. This is a blatant lie and spectacularly stupid. Even within the EAEC preference calculation in dollars and euros, even "brotherly" Belarus trades with Russia for SLE. China gladly nominate transactions with residents of the Russian Federation in RMB, but when you try to sell to them politely refuse rubles Chinese saying that the ruble is not enough reliable currency, if it can within a week "sag" at 20%. Accordingly, if the contract is signed for a year, then the sense to nominate a deal in rubles have no idea. Otherwise you'll have to adjust each week contract.

In general, the ruble in international settlements - it is about how my personal acquaintance with the Queen of England: I personally know her, and she had me - no. Russia is ready to fly abroad something for rubles, but the ruble there nafig nobody needs. Already five years muslyakaet accordion propaganda about the fact that now the Russian Federation is about to start to trade oil in rubles, and the ruble tady udelaet dollar. This will never happen.

Let me explain why: since 1991 in the Russian Federation officially operating mode control external currency (Currency board). In a narrow sense, this mode of monetary policy, in which the monetary authorities are required to maintain a fixed exchange rate of the national currency to the foreign one. But essentially Currency board means that the national currency is provided exclusively foreign currency reserves. Thus the country can not receive seigniorage, that is the income from the issue of money.

How is the share premium, if the economy is growing and the number of goods and services on the market has increased by 100 billion rubles, the government can print these 100 billion and spend it at its discretion - to raise public sector wages, to invest in large infrastructure projects or to hold the Olympics. Is an additional income in relation to tax revenues. Therefore, in principle, a country with financial sovereignty can reduce taxes (which boosts economic growth), make up the lost income due to emission. If the economy grows, it does not cause inflation.

If the economy falls, and with it the tax revenue, here the government has a choice: either to include the printing press to maintain and even increase budget expenditures, paying inflation or reduce budget expenditures and dispose of the money supply to maintain stable exchange rate monetary unit. I will not say what is right. In one case it is one, else - else. The bottom line is that if a sovereign country's financial system, the problem is solved issue sovereign - state.

But in the colonial Bantustans, which is the erefii have no sovereign rights, but there is a duty - to ensure the exchange of the ruble on the currency. The printing press is turned not when there is a need to increase budget spending and not when the economy has a need for liquidity, and only when exporters increases the flow of foreign exchange earnings, to be exchanged for rubles. As a result, there is a surge in inflation. What is the government doing? That's right, it utilizes the ruble mass. That is, such a scheme: printed rubles, exchange them for dollars, dollars given to the US Treasury, in return IOUs, then collected taxes and instead spend that budget revenues on public sector wages and infrastructure projects disposal methods, that is destroyed. And all this just for the sake of, lest inflation. Who got in this case seigniorage? No, not the issuer rubles, and the issuer of dollars.

Currency board regime means that only to prevent the financial collapse of the country is forced to burn in the furnace of foreign exchange intervention hundreds of billions of dollars that must be pre-barter for something of value, such as oil and gas. If a country has a sovereign financial system, the rate of national currency to the dollar is determined administratively. Here, for example, the CPC Central Committee held in China, one dollar is worth six yuan, and a bet. And they want tomorrow - the course will be one-to-one or 10 to one. It all depends on what is more favorable to China - Yuan strong or weak. So far, China is beneficial stable yuan. No, of course it varies + \ - 2%, but these are minor variations, in which even the speculative gesheft not do.

Whether dealing with the ruble bought a million dollars a week "left in the ruble", even after five days back in the dollar and the "fixed income" of $ 200 thousand. And Cho did you do - plowing, steel cooked, software developed, oil is extracted? No, only the buttons on the computer ponazhimat fit a finger at the right time. But if the speculator has increased $ 200 thousand, then someone has their diminished, right? And you know, at whom they are diminished, and who profit from the currency board regime external. That's right - the external manager. They get profit out of the air, just playing the weakening or strengthening of national currencies that are dependent on this issuer.

Russia can not print dollars to strengthen the ruble, but managing the US Federal Reserve could theoretically create trillions of dollars simply by pressing a few keys on the computer, and then attack with this neibicheskoy dollar supply currency of any country in the world with an "open" economy that does not have financial sovereignty , drop it on the floor, "take profits", then this virtual dollar supply is utilized by pressing keys on the keyboard. As a result, we have continued dollar supply, ruined the economy of the whole country, with a population at the time was poor, and a handful of sverhbogateev who became even richer.

The principle I have shown very exaggerated, but it is true. Now you see why trade oil and gas in rubles of the Russian Federation can never? If it is not clear writing extremely accessible: the ruble is not secured currency is not worth anything and it becomes necessary to nobody. Besides, if it is at lower oil prices doubled twice devalued the ruble and the resulting budget nominally nothing to lose, what would happen if the price of a barrel will be denominated in rubles: Lower oil prices in dollars doubled - they will fall at the same rate and in the rubles. As a result, the budget will lose a quarter of income, and plug it with the issue can not be, because in these conditions emissions cause a surge in inflation.

So state the fundamental thing: financial stability in Russia is based on the foreign exchange reserves. There are stocks - stability is not guaranteed, but possible. No stocks - financial collapse is inevitable. This is as true as a lethal dependence of tsarist Russia during the reign of Bloody Nikolashka of gold loans. Morons still sing the "golden" Nicholas ruble as the most stable world currency at the time. In fact, the ruble was not gold, but the most common paper, but backed by gold, that is freely exchanged for this paper. Therefore, the gold from Russia, where ilitka decided to play in the "open economy", constantly flowed abroad. And the tsarist government continually stood with outstretched hands, begging for bankers in Paris and London gold on more onerous terms. As a result of this gold again proved to the bankers, and rigidly fixed in the Russian debt. It all ended in the Revolution of 1917

Who played the role of gold currency reserves of the Russian Federation, where gold - about 10-15% (and not the fact that this gold is physically located in Russian). State gold reserves - the only objective barometer of the financial viability of the country. Again, look to Central Bank statistics: if the gold reserves will shrink at the same rate that now, pisdets come in about 2.5 years. Increase oil prices - will increase inflow of foreign currency, the collapse will be delayed. If there are any internal or external adverse fatkory, capital flight from Russia will acquire the character of panic and gold reserves can "burn" in the past month.

Hamsters now rejoice: the dollar fell to 52.50 rubles. You can at least put it to 20 rubles - for this the Central Bank should launch on the market for green billion a day, or even two. But then gold reserves run out within a year. And, in general, in March and April is always a dollar sags because it is the time of tax payments, and exporters take off currency to buy rubles. So very glad I would not.

But if oil freebie ($ 100 per barrel) will return Lafayette theoretically last forever (but it is only in theory, in real life there are no miracles). Thus, in conditions approaching crisis (which has not really started) for us, ordinary citizens, the most important question is this: how not to lose money. Well, if you do not have, and borrow my grandmother and retired tyschonku payday, then you are a lucky man - you do not have a problem, how to preserve what is not.

But someone, for example, a large salary. Large - more than 120-150 thousand. Per month. Or even salary and a small, but you save up for a new moped. And while the hoard, do not want to lose the acquired overwork. How to save your money, tell you tomorrow.
DARPA
 
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