Swing mutual sanctions transport Ukraine - Russian Federation

[DARPA]

Readers were asked to comment on the "swing" of the Ukrainian-Russian mutual sanctions in the field of transport, which gave us new surprises in the past two weeks. However, the surprises for me it is not surprising, given the consistent policy of Ukraine on New connection is broken; but and extremely instructive - for each "lead" were answered on the other side of the mirror, and very quickly.

OK. Let us briefly to consider two streams of sanctions.


1. Train

a) On September 24, declared that "Ukrzaliznytsya" has decided on withdrawal from the country of more than 3.5 thousand. freight gondola property "Freight One" (PGC) and its "daughter", "Freight in Ukraine" and ban their admission to the country .
(otsedova)

Further, publicly demonstrated an incredibly naive understanding of the situation, but rather, simply clumsy cover fundamental political decision "on top":

[...] At the same time, answering the question of how the ban will affect the transit flows through Ukraine, head of the "Ukrzaliznytsya" did not rule out that the transit can carry out another company, not ranked in the sanctions list.

Ie Ukraine itself cuts the opportunity to own a transit through the territory of the Russian Federation and deliberately undermining the financial base of transit traffic through its territory, on which the Ukrainian railroad workers earning serious sums.

b) After 6 days, the mirror should be a response from the "eastern neighbors":

Russian Railways (RZD) going from 30 October this year to ban the operation of cars SE "Ukrainian State Centre of railway refrigerated transport" Ukrreftrans "(Fastiv) on the territory of the Russian Federation.
(otsedova)

What was the result?

Answer give themselves Ukrainian commentators on the Ukrainian resources:

[...] Perhaps this figure is one for a long time will not be called. Since the "ingenious" solution Yatsenyuk eventually will cost Ukraine billions of dollars of losses. However, even a superficial analysis of Ukrainian export and import statistics show that if the whole of the Russian Federation still prohibit the transit of Ukrainian freight w / e-transport (more cars) on the territory of the Russian Federation, only direct losses Ukrainian rail sector will amount to at least $ 1 billion.

That's how much, say, in 2014 Ukrainian w / d-carriers earned in the export of services rail transport (mainly for the carriage of goods from Europe and partly from Ukraine to Russia and from Russia to Europe). In addition, it is a powerful blow to the Ukrainian commodity exports not only to the Russian Federation (still the largest market for Ukrainian goods), but also to the markets of the Central Asian countries of the CIS (another major, after the Russian Federation, the buyer of Ukrainian goods), as well as the countries of the Caucasus.

For example, the volume of merchandise exports to Kazakhstan from Ukraine, which is still entirely went to the Ukrainian wagons through the territory of the Russian Federation - $ 1 billion., Turkmenistan - more than $ 400 million., To Uzbekistan - $ 300 million., In Azerbaijan - more than $ 600 million., Armenia and Georgia - $ 300 million ..

But what is even more "fun" - is rapidly falling exports of such strategic or very large so far for Ukrainian markets, such as China (2.6 billion. Ukrainian exports in 2014) and Iran (700 million). where the export was at least 2/3 of the rail through the same Russia and through the Central Asian countries.

Bypass route simply does not exist. Too many commodity groups to refocus on maritime transport, to then start up the flow of goods across the Indian Ocean - it sounds fantastic. So, to sell something in those crucial for Ukraine's markets, Ukrainian exporters have to keep to the border with Russia their loads (Russian freight cars in Ukraine, too, access is closed), continue to pay their congestion in the Russian freight cars and then for them to transport loads via Russia in the Russian Federation itself, and in all of these countries.

[...]

We note here that the Russians from these new rules will also damage. But it is not comparable to the damage that caused Ukraine itself. The difference in the proportions just 100 commercials as it is known that in 2014 about 90% of land transit of goods that previously went through Ukraine, the Russian Federation refocused on Belarus and other countries.

2. The Aviation

a) September 25 Ukraine announces initiative (since October 25) restrictions on the Russian airlines flights to Ukrainian airports. The list includes more than two dozen carriers for which also introduced a ban on flights over the territory of the country
(otsedova and otsedova)

Kremlin surprised, but not much:

"Of course, the cessation of air links between Russia and Ukraine would be another act of madness, but, unfortunately, based on the experience of the last 20 months, we can not deny it's crazy to deny the hypothetical possibility"

b) The following is the mirror of the Russian response to the closure of "heaven" for Ukrainian carriers:

In response to the ban on flights of aircraft of domestic airlines to Ukraine Russia closes the sky and for the carriers from the neighboring country. The prohibition of flights in both directions shall enter into force on 25 October, it can be canceled only after a similar decision of Ukraine.
(otsedova)

There are also consequences of unequal: obsessively scorpion bites its own tail, Novoukrainskaya power again beaten mostly by its own nationals:

[...] The largest Ukrainian airline ("Ukraine International Airlines") is sounding the alarm: Closing of communication with Russia, he could lose about $ 10 million. The Federal Air Transport Agency noted that more than 70 percent of passengers of all flights Russia-Ukraine - that citizens of Ukraine. Passenger traffic between the two countries for 8 months of 2015 amounted to about 800 thousand people, of whom about 560,000 passengers - citizens of Ukraine.

Interesting calculations made on this subject and my Friend yapet, considering the number and the percentage of "Russian" of flights from Ukraine:

[...] If the sanctions have started to act right now, then uniquely Russian airline flies 18 flights (AFL, TCO, "Russia"), Ukraine - 9 (UIA "Dniproavia", "Motorsich"). The interesting question is how to take 3 flights UT (the company operates in Russia and Ukraine, the sanctions did not get).

More than half the fall in the flow of the airports of Odessa and Kiev Juliani (from Russia to fly large aircraft), exactly half the passengers will be less than in Kiev. Even Kiev Borispol lose 10-15%.

The situation with the transit even more complicated. How many flights of the Russian Federation is still taking place in Bulgaria, Moldova, Romania, Turkey and Egypt over the territory of Ukraine, I do not know (the date of their number in the tens), but MAU (to my knowledge) the only long-haul flights to the east of Beijing. Cautiously I assume that better not be anyone but aviation "not from Boryspil" in Ukraine is almost guaranteed to be buried.

And the Ukrainian "analysts" on the resources funny resent the immortal principle of unicellular logic "... and then for scho we ???":

[...] In Moscow, called the measure a mirror Ukrainian response to sanctions, but it is not. Ukraine imposed sanctions against the Russian airlines, which have continued to fly in the occupied Russian Crimea. No right to make flights to the closed our country at the international airport of Simferopol Russian airlines were not, in fact, vultures passenger insolently refused to pay fines, which comply with all international aviation regulations. And do not pay attention to this demonstrative violation of international law, there was no point.

However, sanctions Ukraine does not touch companies that did not make the route to the Crimea - so it was not no claims against the airline "YuTeyr."

[...] The aggressor - Russia, the victim of aggression - Ukraine. Violators - Russian airlines got what they deserved. And only from the Russian leadership depended, whether it react to the situation pragmatically and decides to show what a great and proud Russia. The prevailing Russian imperial arrogance - as you might expect, because apart from arrogance, oil and readiness to kill hurl modern Russia does not have.

c) Sub total -

... counting the consequences, "Poroshenko ready to discuss with Russia the crisis in air traffic" ().

Now, like, we decided to "think" how to resolve the crisis.

* * *
What is striking in these two stories, with one story?

In both cases, the authorities of the new Ukraine, the principle - "try pobolney sting, where we can!", Which in this case is absolutely not calculated, even at elementary equivalent effect. It is surprising that the predictive ability of the calculation of the losses and possible sanctions mirrored at local politicians are absolute zero. As if decisions are made by some single-celled amoebae instead of people.

Moreover, the real technical leaders in the field - both ultrasonic and airlines are absolutely not stupid and understand what and how much will be lost and destroyed. However, decisions from "above" taken absolutely absurd, and they are forced to carry them out. So New Ukraine with the tenacity of a madman paranoyika cuts off the branch on which it sits, and reduces the possibility of his own maneuver to microscopic quantities. Although the principle of "more of hell!" mutual transport links is now an objective has been working on Russia, which has lower loss ratio of about 15: 1 - 30: 1 and there is much more opportunity for reorientation of transit flows. Just mainly on "their" beat novoukraintsy during closing w / d messages in the Crimea at the end of 2014.

Interestingly, in the beginning of 2015 and projects were considered even complete cessation messages initiated by the extreme "hawks" like Turchinov - but they still is not reached.

In general - "deuce again!":