Re: Virus 2019-nCoV in Sanya and Haikou on Hainan, China in 2020
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Chinese doctor said when the scale of the threat from coronavirus becomes clear
January 25, 2020
The effect of the complete closure of the multimillion-dollar city of Wuhan and several others will be visible in about 5-10 days, said Zeng Guang, a Chinese expert in epidemiology at the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, quoted by Xinjinbao.
According to the scientist, the results of the active and large-scale actions of the Chinese authorities to prevent the spread of the unexplored virus throughout the country and beyond, most likely, can be estimated in the near future - within a week or a little more.
It is imperative that this happens before the end of the tourist season, which traditionally accompanies the celebration of the New Year according to the lunar calendar, when large masses of people will return to work. At the same time, the expert noted that the rate of spread of coronavirus, apparently, is still being controlled. "Xinjingbao" recalls that the forecasts of some Western experts to fully cope with the threat will not work until May.
Zeng Guang builds his assumptions that the next 5-10 days will be most important from the point of view of determining the scale of the disaster on the approximate duration of the incubation period of the disease, in which its manifestations are not so noticeable. If as a result of the measures taken by the government of the country and provincial authorities, in particular, the isolation of a number of cities with a multimillion population, it is possible to avoid a spasmodic growth of patients, then these measures can be considered correct and effective.
As for the detection of "non-mass" cases of cases outside the province of Hubei, where the foci of the virus are located, it is quite possible to deal with them with targeted measures, isolating these patients and providing them with the necessary care, the Chinese professor emphasized.
The forecasts of some foreign colleagues, according to which the fight against the virus may drag on until May, Zeng Guang is not ready to unequivocally accept. According to the scientist, the calculations used mathematical models that were appropriate in certain circumstances, but in this case we are talking about the determination of all Chinese to rally before the threat, and different rules work here.
According to the data on Saturday morning, in China 1287 cases of coronavirus infection in 29 provinces (out of 33) were confirmed, 237 patients in critical condition, 41 people died.
January 25, 2020
The effect of the complete closure of the multimillion-dollar city of Wuhan and several others will be visible in about 5-10 days, said Zeng Guang, a Chinese expert in epidemiology at the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, quoted by Xinjinbao.
According to the scientist, the results of the active and large-scale actions of the Chinese authorities to prevent the spread of the unexplored virus throughout the country and beyond, most likely, can be estimated in the near future - within a week or a little more.
It is imperative that this happens before the end of the tourist season, which traditionally accompanies the celebration of the New Year according to the lunar calendar, when large masses of people will return to work. At the same time, the expert noted that the rate of spread of coronavirus, apparently, is still being controlled. "Xinjingbao" recalls that the forecasts of some Western experts to fully cope with the threat will not work until May.
Zeng Guang builds his assumptions that the next 5-10 days will be most important from the point of view of determining the scale of the disaster on the approximate duration of the incubation period of the disease, in which its manifestations are not so noticeable. If as a result of the measures taken by the government of the country and provincial authorities, in particular, the isolation of a number of cities with a multimillion population, it is possible to avoid a spasmodic growth of patients, then these measures can be considered correct and effective.
As for the detection of "non-mass" cases of cases outside the province of Hubei, where the foci of the virus are located, it is quite possible to deal with them with targeted measures, isolating these patients and providing them with the necessary care, the Chinese professor emphasized.
The forecasts of some foreign colleagues, according to which the fight against the virus may drag on until May, Zeng Guang is not ready to unequivocally accept. According to the scientist, the calculations used mathematical models that were appropriate in certain circumstances, but in this case we are talking about the determination of all Chinese to rally before the threat, and different rules work here.
According to the data on Saturday morning, in China 1287 cases of coronavirus infection in 29 provinces (out of 33) were confirmed, 237 patients in critical condition, 41 people died.