Russian economy has shown surprising to many Western experts "persistence"

[DARPA]

About a year ago, the largest international financial and analytical institutions naprorochili in 2015 our country the economic apocalypse. In particular, the leading expert of sovereign risk rating agency Moody's Kristin Lindow said: "Russia will experience a deep recession in 2015 and the continued decline in 2016. This decline in confidence is likely to limit domestic demand and aggravate the Russian economy has chronic underinvestment. " It keeps up with their negative assessments and other equally authoritative agency Fitch, which drew colorful "horrifying picture of the Russian devastation."

The forecast provided and the investment bank Morgan Stanley, determine the depth of the fall of Russia's GDP in 2015 at 5.6% and in 2016 - another 2.5% with an average oil price of $ 55 and $ 64 per barrel, respectively. At the same time foreign exchange reserves by the end of 2015, according to bankers, have been reduced to $ 330 billion. With the cost of oil Morgan Stanley guessed. In fact the average price of "barrel" was about $ 53.

However, the Russian economy has shown surprising to many Western experts "persistence". The World Bank, summing up the past year, was forced to say decline of Russia's GDP is only 3.8%, while gold reserves have not changed significantly. As for industrial production, it declined by 3.3%. It is important to note that in July 2015 the decline was estimated at 5.5%. Thus, if we take this figure as a reference point, over the six months, our industry has rebounded by 2.2%, and approximately at this level has stabilized. We denote clear leaders. MIC has shown an increase of 13% on the same - shipbuilding, aviation, pharmaceuticals - 12%, chemical industry - by 7%.

The fact that the economic apocalypse to Russia has been avoided, believes the publication Foreign Affairs in his article "Not very smart sanctions." "The Government (Russia - ed.) Was able to overcome the crisis by providing emergency capital to banks in the financial speed wobble parallel releasing the ruble float freely, - says Emma Ashford, a research fellow at the Cato Institute. - There have been targeted state budget cuts while providing fiscal stimulus. Even while maintaining low oil prices, the International Monetary Fund expects growth may return in the Russian economy in 2016, although very, very modest. "

According to Emma Ashford, falling hydrocarbon market is not by chance coincided with the peak of payments on foreign Russian corporate debt in 2014 and 2015. On the other hand, the White House, "to take a bear attack on the barrel," caused uncontrollable avalanche effect, which is now suffering, including the American "slate." But that's not all. "Washington in an effort to impress the Kremlin banned the transfer of new technologies to Russian oil company, and any lending Russian banks - says Emma Ashford - is that all inflict a terrible blow to Russia. However, sanctions have proved the obvious failure of Obama. "

The Kremlin was able to get around US financial restrictions, when Moscow and Beijing have agreed on a currency swap 150 billion. Yuan, allowing Russian companies to trade in raw materials and other goods using Chinese money. Thus, "Russian businessmen manage to stay away from the American right." Even in Europe, Russia has been able to find solutions to gain access to modern drilling technology through the acquisition of a 30 percent stake in North Atlantic drilling projects, owned by the Norwegian company Statoil. Something similar exists in other sectors. All this allows Moscow to have loopholes in the western technological blockade.

"The worst thing for Russia, I think, was completed at this point - concludes Timothy Fry, an internationally renowned expert on Russian at Columbia University's Harriman. - We see that the economy began to stabilize and get used to the new reality due to lower oil prices. " Apparently, Russian, and if "sitting on the oil needle, it is not as tight as previously assumed." Impact on imports, mainly in the retail, automotive and construction. Of course, this is much for Russia's GDP, and yet not as critical as, for example, for the Persian Gulf.

Of course, the Russian minister's experience helped 2008-2009. Then, in fact, form a horizontal business relationships that allow basic industries to work as a team. This approach eliminates the "domino effect", which counted on Washington. If somewhere there are local problems with liquidity, they immediately cropped.

Plus, Putin managed to "make real money from the oligarchs who made billions in Russia," believes Timothy Frye. He was echoed by Ed Mermelstein, an international investment lawyer providing services for a long time the Russian nouveaux riches. "It is clear that the new money does not leave the borders of Russia" - bitterly says Mermelstein. And to the credit of the Russian president, who has leverage over Russia's richest men, he said.

Apparently, both experts not hope to revolt oligarchs sanctions and low oil prices, while claiming that if the government does not keep the bar of the current stability, Putin's rating will decrease. In general, the provincial population growing rate of the dollar is not the main indicator of distress. People "outside Moscow" is more important than a stable index of utility bills and the price of social trading network "Magnet". There shock changes in the past two years were observed. Muscovites and Petersburgers certainly more unhappy crisis.

His restrained conclusions about our economy Western experts make statements on the basis of national companies. Thus, the net financial result (profit minus loss) of organizations (excluding small businesses, banks, insurance companies and budgetary institutions) shows a fairly good state of health of the industry. Final data for the year just yet, but indirect indicators profits of domestic companies increased compared to the previous year, a minimum of 5% and will amount to not less than 6 trillion. rubles.

Why did it happen, Sergei Chemezov explained by the example of the state corporation "Rostec", whose revenue in 2015 increased by 25% - to 1 trillion 196 billion rubles. Although in the first place Chemezov put the success of professional management, he nevertheless stated that no premiums high devaluation, which has blocked foreign exchange costs, there has not been. In short, the profit grows only in those companies in which a significant portion of the production is based on the inside Russian resources and technology. Meanwhile, according to Rosstat, the share of unprofitable enterprises is less than 30%. This, of course, a lot, but at the same time, contrary to the myth of total importozavismosti Russia. To remedy the situation must be large-scale investment, but they are not.

In other words, Russia still jumped on the bandwagon last carriage of the outgoing economic train. However, the ride comfort, apparently, we will not come soon.