About the difference in the crisis of 1998 and 2015

[DARPA]

Tonight was a call that prompted me to write a post is still on a serious subject - whether we will have a wave of mass bankruptcies of companies a la the late 90s and early zero.

The owner of a well-known in the field of network tire centers decided to terminate their offspring. The reason - the impossibility of lending and bank requirements for early repayment of loans due to non-current liabilities of the debtor. Enterprise for more than 20 years. Debt - 400 mln., Assets of 500 million. Customers do not have to be sell in parts rather than the whole business.

I want to say that before this incident causes which impel to sell their businesses in the fat years, were household: the desire to go into the cache, a divorce with a partner, change of interest or place of residence. Forced sale of went out just now and the possible reasons for this are not just lazy writing liberal Westerners, we all know this, and for the sim, I will not repeat.

As a person who has experience in property redistribution through bankruptcy "on stream" in those dashing years and is engaged in foreign direct investment over the past 5 years, I have to say the following.

On the decline of the 90s led the majority of enterprises (and often is the owner of) the so-called "red directors", the purpose of which is non-profit, and the preservation of jobs and production of marketable products (services). This is supported by the state - admitted the failure of taxes to the budget and off-budget funds, payments for energy (gas, electricity - at the time they are delivered to state-owned enterprises, recall). Only to maintain stability in the workforce, because in many cases they were forming enterprises and fed many settlements. Remember paid teachers and doctors, as well as from municipal employees at the time?

Naturally, kopilas payables, which are distributed as follows: 30-40% of the budget, 20-30% of the PF and social insurance, 20-25% of energy, interest 5, a maximum of 10% - banks, the rest of the other suppliers of raw materials and equipment. Ie Director of blood from his nose and paid the salary calculated for raw materials and components. And he had never could have imagined that to survive we need to cut the company of people - it was so immoral and shameful.

Bankruptcy Law came into force in the spring 98 and the first tentative procedures "financial health" earned the fall of that ill-fated year.

What we see now. The owner was thinking about his income and go through a man he has never been easier - the mentality is not the same. Without money, he does not give energy, not supply raw materials. God forbid him a little bit overdue on taxes and duties - all fiscals and prosecutors only this waiting punitive machine debugged perfectly. For wage arrears vzgreyut three neck, but still not weak popiaritsya sensitive statesmen. And try not paid to the day the rent - your landlord payments already painted in the years ahead)) And then came the crisis ... and then scored loans (for renovation, expansion of production, working capital financing, etc.), thank God banks were pliable, and persuaded themselves to borrow ...

Bankruptcy law is highly streamlined and very word no one is afraid.

Why am. Bankruptcy will, though not as numerous as in those days. Will initiate their banks, they also will be the main beneficiaries of a possible third wave of property in the country. They will act firmly and with a lisp businesses will not be - first of all financial indicators. Business owners know this and go to the reduction of salaries and staff reductions, until the closure of industries. I will say this - people will drive out in the first place. Will do so with a clear conscience. And this is the main difference from the hard times in the bend millennia.

It is capitalism.

UPD. Post contains incommensurable difference between the two crises, the main cause of this disease and how to fight it must decide doctors who armed with (what I really want to believe) are ready for this infection. Symptoms have gone.
In the 98 had surgery, now you can do therapy, and in some places and prevention. Importantly, sensitivity and attention.