Under what conditions the oil will cost $ 5 per barrel

[DARPA]

Thus, the formula "3600 rubles per barrel" is still not working. The dollar is worth 56 rubles, oil - $ 55 per barrel. If you multiply, we get 3100 rubles. In this case, if earlier defenders formula explained that the decline from 3600 to 3100 was achieved only due to the combustion in the furnace of foreign exchange reserves, now refuted this argument. Russian gold reserves are growing the second consecutive week, while the stock of physical gold has grown to a size of 1,200 tons and reached a maximum (!) Over the last 20 years:

http://www.vestifinance.ru/articles/55500

Why is this happening? Why such a simple, beautiful and clear formula - 3600 rubles per barrel - suddenly stopped working?

Because those who want to look to the future, it is necessary to correctly understand the causes of events. Wind is not due to the fact that the swing tree, and vice versa. Even if at first glance it seems the trees cause wind.

I wrote back in December: the ruble is very weakly dependent on oil prices. Here is a rough analogy: if the street is 10 degrees colder, whether you will be in the apartment for 10 degrees cooler?

Answer: will not. Since you are separated from the street windows because you have central heating radiators, and as you can, if necessary, to include in the radiator outlet.

Russia has huge reserves of gold reserves, the minimum external debt and highly developed economy. The share of oil exports in GDP is only 9%. This strongly enough to fluctuations in oil prices has a direct impact on the exchange rate. For comparison: in Libya democratized Americans share of oil exports in GDP - 54%, while the rate of the dinar against the dollar is stable enough ...

Why am I telling you all this again?

To show the differences between forecasts. Outlook "oil was 3600 rubles per barrel in December and January, so it will cost 3600 rubles per barrel and further" based on the so-called "people's induction." Unfamiliar with the logic of the inhabitant believes that if his three friends were thick and American silly, then the whole of America is populated by fools and beefy.

More sober man but will not make findings on three instances and address the statistical data on the average IQ in the US and the prevalence of obesity in this country:

http://ruxpert.ru/Тексты:Георгий_Челпанов._Учебник_логики_(гоблинский_перевод_Олега_Макаренко)

And oil. Supporters of the formula "3600 rubles per barrel" could not specify any reasons why this formula would have to work - except for the "people" reasons: they say, because the earlier work, the means and will continue to work. Here you go, the result: a natural way the formula works ceased.

By the way, note exactly the same thing and write about the dollar itself. "The dollar is relatively stable since the seventies, it means that the dollar will be stable forever." This is also a popular logic and those who rely on it seriously, too, lurk in the future some surprises.

Smoothly move on to the essence of fasting.

Now we are afraid of another "disaster" - The Western world is trying to improve relations with Iran, and against this background, oil prices dipped slightly. Of this, some conclude that soon oil prices to collapse, long haul:

http://ria.ru/economy/20150402/1056258372.html

Should we be afraid of a strong decline in oil prices?

Again, let's look at the basic, fundamental principles of oil prices. All truly large deposits of oil were discovered in the sixties of the last century, and with each successive decade, advances geologists were all humble and modest. Thus, in the nineties was opened about three times less new oil than in the sixties, and for zero years - still 40% less:



However, the old deposits gradually depleted, and oil consumption is not even thinking to decline. In this case, for obvious reasons initially pumped from wells most lёgkodobyvaemaya oil, so with each passing year to extract oil is becoming harder and harder.

Whether oil would end completely?

No, not the end. Since we can always extract gasoline (and other petroleum products), though from coal, as did Germany during the Second World War. However, the price of a normal liquid petroleum alternatives - whether shale oil, or, say, some biofuels - is very high.

At the same time, characteristically, a technological breakthrough in the field of energy humanity has not yet reached. This means that cheap energy sources yet remain the same dream as, for example, transplantation of human brain in a robotic body. Some success in these areas is, but the real result is still very, very far away.

Summarize the above: in the medium term oil is doomed to appreciation. At least to the level of $ 100 per barrel, as lower price does well with hard oil unprofitable.

Here is a good article detailing, with graphs and pictures, due to the global alignment. Article old, from 2011, but the situation with the period for obvious reasons has not changed, and has already come true predictions of the author only add credibility to his analysis:

http://aftershock.su/?q=node/299613

Let's go back to the situation with Iran. Can the oil fall sharply against the background of the successful negotiation of the West with our southern friends?

On the one hand, hopes that "Iran can pour the oil market" is very far from reality. Even in the case of a complete withdrawal of all embargoes real increase in supply will be very small. Iran had been actively export its oil, special technical capacity to increase exports from Iran is not there.

Again, Israel and Saudi Arabia do not really want to negotiate with Iran, and the Republicans as much more joy would be bombed Iran, than cooperate with it. Therefore rejoice conclude interim agreements until early: a final agreement may be, and may still not be concluded after 30 June.

On the other hand, oil prices may well fall, with even stronger than predicted pessimists. Let me remind States came close to the threshold of the most powerful financial crisis. Chance to avoid a crisis - or at least delay it - they have almost none. However, Americans can choose between two bad scenarios: inflation and deflation. They have all the levers to steer its economy on one of these disastrous ways.

With inflation, everything is clear: in this scenario the dollar depreciates many times and turns into waste paper, and then lose the opportunity States, for example, they need to import goods.

If you select a scenario of deflation, dollar, on the contrary, at some time will become incredibly expensive. And then a barrel of oil can be purchased for $ 55 is not, as now, but for $ 5. Of course, deflation will crush the US economy as a cockroach sneakers. But for some time, once again, the dollar will be very expensive, and all resources - including oil - very cheap relative to the dollar.

Again, we must remember speculators. Using a variety of ways that I do not see any reason now to list, they can easily move the price of oil within plus or minus $ 25 from the normal - and for a short time and does speculators are able to put down the price tags on almost any value.

Thus, even though the planet and is now creeping into the era of high oil prices, price fluctuations are quite possible and I did not wonder if the oil for some relatively short time, become cheaper.

And now the icing on the cake. Americans are well aware that oil prices will continue to rise. And they act accordingly. Quote analyst crimsonalter:

http://politrussia.com/ekonomika/brent- ... khali-827/

When looking to the future to consider another interesting factor. Even Americans realize that shale companies do not live. The question is, what and when to finish them off. The latest report of the Advisory Council at the US Department of Energy (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/ ... 6-17-03-47 ) Indicates that shale boom in any case end at the beginning of the next decade, and the United States, if you do not wish to get into a serious dependency on oil-exporting countries must now beginning to develop projects in the Arctic, despite low oil prices. From this report, you need to do two things:

1. The US expects that oil prices will inevitably rise, and so hard that it makes an incredibly profitable expensive Arctic projects.

2. When Putin is spending billions of rubles for the military forces in the Arctic and the military exercises in the Arctic, it is not "saber rattling" as they say our liberals. It protects our future, protect our status as an energy superpower, and today builds the foundation of our economic strength for the future.


Summarize

Cheap oil would solve many problems of mankind. If the price of oil has been fixed as 50 years at a level of $ 10 a barrel, perhaps, the planet would benefit.

But, alas, whether we like it or not, the oil in the foreseeable future is destined to become a road. And I really do not envy the economies of those countries that close their nuclear power plants and rely on green energy and hydrocarbons available.

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