Ukraine's future in its past. Where is the future of Russia itself?

[DARPA]

1. Why Russia needs Ukraine? Let's leave it like it is! It is "self die."

Of course, the eternal truth sounds like "do not even cats give birth." Withdrawal from active participation in any process never to no good results: the real process without external involvement usually goes to some very undesirable direction. In case, if you except the process of pro-actively influence others, very powerful global players (in the case of Ukraine, this - the EU and the US), the results start the process "to chance" to anything good for Russia will not: most likely, about Russia's interest in Ukraine will have to forget for many decades and in the future even beg that five years ago appeared on the Russian law.
It then goes about what to do without Ukraine, of course, you can, but that's only Ukraine - it does not have hostile Georgia and 35 millionth state at his side - it is a pleasure not a pleasant one.
Not to mention the fact that in this case there is no "counterweight" in the form of EurAsEC anti-EU, Russia will not leave - even if Russia miraculously block militarization of Ukraine, conducted by the US, the EU market will get its raw materials, human resources and marketing of cheap finished products anyway.

2. Ukraine - the yoke on the neck of Russia. Do you want to select food from Tver residents or Vladimir?

While, of course, "the effect of Ukraine does not." Have "the effect of the Crimea." With 85% subsidization of the region (70% subsidization for Sevastopol). It is currently at the level of Chechnya and Dagestan.
Generally, the discussion of who and what someone "with a plate ate" I like not enough, usually hear it from those who eat and three throat - as, for example, residents of Moscow, for which reason the rate is set to the teacher level of 38 000, while in St. Petersburg is already at 14 000 rubles, and in the Crimea somehow became the new year and all of 6200 rubles.

If each region considered solely in terms of the cost of it - is "unnecessary", of course, will be 80% of the regions of Russia and 95% of its population for the highly profitable oil and gas production and pipeline protection, as we recall, according to the assessment of Comrade Thatcher , it would be enough 5 million Russian.

In case, if Russia "grows population and territory," which is not just survive, as the Crimea, and who themselves may earn for themselves, and to help in something neighbors - that imaginary line of such a piece of Ukraine was outlined more fully in the spring 2014. And called, in general, namely the already half-forgotten name "Big New Russia".
Such a project could quite pull themselves economically and socially: enough (yet) monolithic perception of reality, strong social and economic ties with Russia (too long! - As the situation in connection with the ongoing daily events, changes drastically for the worse - see given notice to claim 1).

If Russia and the majority of Russians still think of themselves as part of a "sect guardians refrigerators" - that about any "stability" can not think, looking at the example of the south-east of Ukraine and taking into account the activity of the United States in the Caucasus, Central Asia and Belarus - I will not let the future of Russia and the penny, because the decision of the question of "Ring Anaconda" in the form of hostile, and then - and openly hostile to the Russian regime across the arc from the Baltic to the Altai - the next battleground will be the Russia itself.
In that and in fact the teacher in Moscow receives for the same job three times more than the teacher in St. Petersburg and five times more than the teacher in the Crimea.

3. Why do we need "Big New Russia"? And what is its danger to the Kremlin?

On the one hand - "Great New Russia" (in any status, even in the form of an unrecognized state) - is a headache in the first place in Kiev, not Moscow.
Moscow today anyway, but vvyazla on the ears and in the Crimea (see link above), and in the Donbass. After all, as you know, we have no rubles in Donetsk, nor in Washington do not print.
In addition, without the "Great New Russia" freezes very vexing question of Transnistria, which, in the case of Ukraine's hostility towards Russia and its allies, the situation is even difficult to manage, and in some ways even hopeless.
And the question of protection of the Crimea and the Donbass, of course, always be a sword of Damocles hanging over Russia, not allowing the maneuver forces on the other threatened sectors - in the Caucasus, Central Asia, the Far East.

Let me remind you, now on the borders of Ukraine are somehow connected about 60 thousand Russian troops (20,000 in the Crimea and about 40 thousand - in LDNR and on the eastern borders of the former Ukrainian). Release data on other areas of force can only protect the Crimea and LDNR. The most obvious, almost "free" way of the weakening and strengthening of Ukraine LDNR is, of course, the movement of the demarcation line sides as possible to the west, in the "land bridge to the Crimea" or "blockade the coast" down to Odessa.
Especially in Russia such as is fleet in the Black Sea, I understand everything correctly?

However, understandably, such a "Big New Russia" will put in front of the Kremlin leadership and a lot of hard questions.
For example, in the area will have to arrange the payment of pensions. Let - small, only 2,000 - 3,000 rubles, even at the rate of 2 rubles per 1 hryvnia, but ... in rubles.
I'll have something to do with the destroyed infrastructure and re-awaken the private enterprise - the people on the ground are not liberated died of starvation or died on the mass of sores. In general - get in addition to the 125 billion Crimean subsidies in the first stage and 100-200 billion more subsidies "Great New Russia".
Until it is resolved the question of Kiev and all Ukraine as a whole.

4. Why - Kiev? There's - anointed?

I do not love this city. But it that "anointed".
United States were well aware of the importance of the formal framework of Ukrainian legitimacy - and all their efforts were directed in 2014 just to strengthen this very formal, but certainly important for the global recognition processes in Ukraine legitimacy.
If Russia wants to continue playing for the American rules, it should be understood that it is always the same and will lose. Since there will just be seen in the game of checkers, when you and I play "Chapaev". With elements of blackjack.
Conclusion - it is better to make your lander, with blackjack and his poetess. Unless, of course, want to win, not lose.

In the same paragraph, mention that Kiev (and in general - all of Western Ukraine) are required for this process only in the form of formal sacred places. In order to legitimize the process of reformatting Ukraine - without the Crimea and the changed status of the "Great New Russia". How this status will be - it's already by the people of Ukraine and (holy, holy, holy) Russia.
In about the All-Russian Crimea after the referendum is not held, and in fact would be worth.
Then to not be a pity to 125 billion rubles for the Crimea, which was taken from Tver and Vladimir. After all, the safety of "sausages in the fridge" is worth so much. If - no more.
This empire building is cheap even in the medium term.

5. Why should we attack? Sit on the defensive!

No war defense wins. At the earliest opportunity the Ukrainian side will attack. All of these loans, the delivery of technology, the arrival of instructors, transfer of military equipment - everything is done for a reason and not for "beautiful eyes". Ukraine will attack and Donbass, and, God forbid, get out there - and then to Crimea.
And the military efforts of the Ukrainian side will always be accompanied by economic and political actions in which the steps of Russia deeksalatsii situation will be leveled and destroyed in every way.

Therefore, any attempt to "wait until will resolve" will lead to the fact that not only rassёtsya but fester and inflamed.
At the same time, do not think that the author claims to be "Russian tanks on Khreschatyk May 9 this year." Just as Ukraine implements a range of measures to stifle Donbass and Crimea - Russia has the right to carry out a range of measures for disabling all critical systems, the state of Ukraine, which are important for the escalation of the conflict.
While trying to glue something to the current situation in Kiev - is unrealistic, there is neither the elite nor kontrelite have no one and nothing to negotiate, except that, to finally realize the eternal Ukrainian story about the "partisan with the traitor ".

And the cornerstone of this effort, in my view, is precisely the same "Big New Russia", which just reinforces all the pro-Russian forces in Ukraine, while undermining the economic and social base residues of Ukrainian statehood. All Ukraine Rosiiya now will not be able to reformat - it can only be a total loss. And finally lose already.

6. The US has run out of money to Ukraine. And they departed. After which Ukraine will be taking with your bare hands.

So far it is running out of money in Russia. $ 2 billion per year on the Crimea (and not less than $ 1 billion on LDNR and the army, as I see it) - this is very important for modern Russia.
Compare with dedicated $ 5 billion of the IMF and with the annual program on the 17 billion meaningless - primarily comparable US economy and Russia, as I have already written.
Russia's attempt to translate Ukrainian conflict in the stage of "freezing" and economic conflict is detrimental to Russia itself - not the United States otsupit just and economically Russia simply does not trump cards to influence the economy of the EU and the US.
But the EU and the United States of trumps abound - the issue of expansion of the sanctions list now, in general, rather depends on the willingness of the United States. Although, against the decision of the Iranian problem (yes, the fall in oil prices and Iranian gas to Europe!) - The situation with the American-up economic pressure on Russia can be solved without imposing additional sanctions.
Therefore, cost-Russia just need to create a more or less stable organism that still does not work under locked Crimea and besieged and subjected to constant attacks, shelling and blockade LDNR.

7. It is necessary to win over the EU! That is why we come!

Let me remind you what started the confrontation on the Maidan in 2013. Yes, it is now a forgotten "evroassotsiatsii." It is the EU found the formula that has split Ukraine and which successfully took advantage of the US for its plans. Situation in the EU and the US, only one discrepancy: the US is not against poispolzovat Ukrianu against Russia "to the holes", and the EU needs it more or less as a whole. Can be in the "less than a whole", but that too is not entirely desert, where everything will have to build anew.
Hence, by the way, and the rejection of the EU nor the issue of recognition of the Crimea, nor create LDNR: these areas are thus excluded from the European integration project.
Therefore, should not deceive ourselves: the EU plan is to cost Russia moved to Belgorod and Rostov-on-Don. After that, in general, gas and need to be sold on the Russian-Ukrainian border. If it will buy in Europe against a background of sharply heightened supply from Iran.

And here, of course, I already give warm greetings and the Kremlin leadership, and "sect guardians refrigerators."
With the Kremlin's celestials even easier - the material Lev Vershinin they are called correctly and practically by name.
And who among the inhabitants of Russia will exchange the future on a sense of "sausage today and forever" - to solve each of you personally. And all - together.
Because only people who understands their historic role of civilization, remains in history for a long time.
Otherwise, as the story itself - it has a very long "bench".