What is happening in the Russian economy and the banking system?

[DARPA]

News from the economic fields. What is happening in the Russian economy and the banking system?

In April, Russian banks again became unprofitable. After a slight stabilization in March (when was the symbolic profit of 42 billion rubles) in April was recorded at 23 billion loss. The accumulated financial result of Russian banks from January 1 to May 1, 2015 - a loss of 17 billion (in 2014 - profits 292 billion for the same period in 2013 - a gain of 324 billion in 2012 + 342 billion in 2011, + 291 000 000 000). Ie regress is obvious. It is worth noting that the start of 2015 for Russian banks is the worst in modern history, as even in 2009 it had accumulated profit of 32 billion for the May 1, 2009.
Rossiya1
The main reason for losses in 2015 - a growth of costs for provisions for credit write-offs and an increase in interest expenses due to the increase in the cost of funding, which has become the culprit CBR (directly on the second factor).

Losses result in leaching of the capital base of banks while increasing the risk of assets (primarily the loan portfolio). The volume of overdue loans to 2.2 trillion ruble (+ 50% compared to last year), or 6.1% of the volume of ruble-denominated loans (4.1% a year ago). The rate of capital adequacy of banks Russian broke away from a critical minimum of 10%, but still well below the optimal values ​​(14-15%).
Russia2
Capital deficit estimated at no less than 1.5 trillion rubles, given the current structure of banks' assets. It's a lot.

Deleveraging in the Russian fin.sisteme continues. Quarterly compression ruble lending is a record (since 2009) rate. Below is a graph of the quarterly changes in the ruble lending to companies and physical persons.
Rossiya3
Since January 2015 compression loans to households amounted to almost half a trillion rubles, and continues to this day. In percentage terms, the strongest reduction in lending since 2009.
Rossiya4
By company a little better. For the first time since January, it recorded growth of ruble lending, but only 86 billion.
Rossiya5
The situation is blatantly idiotic. With loans population is not so bad, but corporate lending in rubles should grow incredible pace and the reasons for the growth should be:

1. Refinancing of the external debt in the ruble zone, and the Central Bank had to do everything possible and impossible, that the Russian company is engaged in the domestic market. However, in reality it was done exactly the opposite - completely unmanageable and diabolical credit conditions - for a short period of absurd rates. As a result, companies in a coma.
2. Investment expansion, both through the creation of new import substitution industries and sub-sectors and to expand existing production capacities. But again, credit conditions do not allow to develop a long-term payback projects.

As a result, corporate lending in 2015 fell by 18 billion. It seems symbolic value, but it would grow no less than 1 trillion over that period.

But the real drama is going on with the balance in the population.

Since the founding of the Russian Federation in the current format of the population has never even salary in nominal terms did not decline on an annualized basis. Never until now. Taki fell by 0.4% compared to last year, with the Crimean and + 1% without the Crimea. But even 1% - is the lowest level in history. The case unprecedented and worthy of inclusion in the book of anti-record.
Rossiya6
Given the 17% official inflation rate (maximum 2001), the real wages of the population fell by more than 14%. Falling real incomes of the population of Russia in 2015 in terms of three times stronger than in the most difficult period of the crisis of 2008-2009. The current decline of wages comparable to the 1998 crisis.

It is logical that a record drop in wages from 1998 leads to a record decline in spending on private consumption (goods + services). The tendency to reduce began in 2012, lasted until the fall of 2014, and then a sheer drop. The fall 9% yoy, which is comparable to the 2009 crisis.
Russia 8
I have not delved into an analysis of the corporate sector (prom.proizvodstvo, investments, profitability, and so on). A cursory analysis shows that the situation is the worst since 2009 and is likely to be comparable to 1998 (in terms of the dynamics).

For those interested in the latest report of Rosstat.

The disposition is not encouraging.
Russia 9

While there is no sign at all that would indicate the termination of the crisis. There are small signs of stabilization. Inflation has ceased to grow uncontrollably and stabilized at the level of 16-17% per year (mainly due to the strengthening of the ruble and deprevirovannogo retail demand).
Rossiya7
Banks have reduced the debt to the Central Bank to the levels of autumn 2014, and credit spreads have stabilized, but the bottom has not yet been groped. Macroeconomic and financial degradation will affect, at least until the 3rd quarter of 2015.