Ruble: unexpected forecast

[DARPA]

All of us have become accustomed to the forecasts for 2016, promising the ruble or the relative stability or a slight decline. What crisis.



But there was a surprise to many forecasts, which predict the ruble is very optimistic prospects. And he issued a very reputable organizations. According to analysts Danish bank Saxo Bank and is surveyed by Bloomberg experts, this year the situation in the oil market should change dramatically: prices, which have recently just fall, will go up. As experts say, likely intensify the IG and other terrorist groups in the Middle East - because of that oil production will fall correspondingly drastically reduced offer on the market.

According to another version, which adhere to Saxo Bank, the fall in oil production will occur without the "help" of the IG. Here is what the bank's chief economist Steen Jakobsen: "Finally, a long-awaited signs of decrease in production in countries outside OPEC. At the opportune moment, OPEC would catch the market off guard with a decrease in production. This step will stop the downward spiral, and prices start to recover quickly, and investors make haste to take a long position in the market. " According to Jacobsen, the price of oil this year will rise to pre-crisis level of $ 100 / barrel, but quickly rolled back to a more realistic, according to his estimate, the figure of around $ 50-70.

Among other factors that can affect the markets, often called the geopolitics of others. In particular, analysts point out that this year is likely coups in such "oil" countries, such as Venezuela and Algeria.

The development of national economies and contribute to the growth of prices. One of the key consumers of oil in the coming year will be the US and China, whose needs will grow more significant than others. The volume of production of US oil will slow down or even sunk to a minimum because of the financial problems of producers associated with the development of shale deposits unprofitable. The United States will increase the purchase of oil from other countries.

Against this background, Russia's economy are predicting stabilization with subsequent growth, but in the US is projected to multiple shocks. The first is Donald Trump's eventual victory in the presidential election. Already, it expresses its intention to implement tax reform, which will surely provoke panic in the stock markets, the devaluation of the dollar and rise in gold prices, oil and gas.

In addition, Trump is going to tighten immigration policy and adopt a package of measures to "revive the military power of the United States." According to experts, this will require huge costs.

If the US Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates aggressively, it can burst the bubble in the corporate bond market.

Also, experts Saxo Bank and Bloomberg predict the energy crisis caused by problems with the environment: the growth of greenhouse gas emissions will lead to an increase in temperature, which will cause a massive drought. Because of this hydroelectric power plant can stay in countries that already suffer from water scarcity. E Europe and the US is expected to extreme cold in winter, because of which agriculture is likely crop failure and the associated food crisis.

Among other predictions - the beginning of the collapse of the EU, changes in the balance of power in Europe and rising prices for energy and food. But they concern primarily Europe.

For Russia, the outlook is very positive: rising oil prices, a significant strengthening of the ruble (at least 15-20%) and stabilization, and then the rapid growth of the economy.