Today, the President of Russia, by his decrees, announced the recognition of the Lugansk People's Republic and the Donetsk People's Republic and the deployment of Russian troops on the territory of these republics.
We will not touch on the political side of this issue, we are all small people for politics, nothing depends on our opinion in politics, but many of us are connected by trade and financial relations with Russia and new political events are already having a huge impact on the course of these financial and trade relations with Russian enterprises and banks.
First of all, the exchange rate of the ruble has already fallen by several percent against both the dollar and the euro, as well as against the yuan, which immediately put the normal functioning of commodity and financial ties with Russian enterprises and banks in a more difficult position.
But after these political events, both in Russian and in European and American media, the number of reports on the introduction of new, much more serious sanctions against Russia has already increased, first of all, the likelihood of isolating Russia from international financial flows by disconnecting Russian banks from international banking is growing. SWIFT systems.
If this happens, it will be impossible to transfer funds from Russia to China and vice versa, and to other countries, as it was before, therefore, the likelihood of significant difficulties in mutual settlements between Russian and Chinese enterprises through the use of conventional banks, as it was before, has increased. for interstate transfers, the international banking system SWIFT is used.
If Russian banks restrict or disconnect SWIFT from the international banking system, then even foreigners, individuals who are abroad, for example in China, will have significant difficulties in receiving or sending money transfers (including through Russian bank cards) from Russia or to Russia.
But how real is the threat now and how likely is the disconnection of Russian banks from the SWIFT international banking system? Nobody knows the exact answer now, but the UK has already announced the introduction of new sanctions against Russia, and the United States and EU countries are still holding mutual consultations on the development of new sanctions against Russian enterprises and banks. But earlier, representatives of the United States and EU countries have repeatedly voiced threats to disconnect Russia from the SWIFT international banking system in the event of a conflict in Ukraine.
The SWIFT system is an international organization that controls the interbank information exchange system and it all depends on how serious the new sanctions will be, several Russian banks that worked in Crimea have already been cut off from SWIFT. Earlier in Iran, during the period of international sanctions, about half of the banks were disconnected from the SWIFT system.
Some experts have already suggested that the new sanctions to disconnect from the international banking system SWIFT may primarily affect state-owned banks in Russia. In this case, problems will arise for those legal entities that hold accounts in state-owned banks and work in the field of foreign economic activity, and these companies will not be able to send money to their counterparties. But no one knows for sure yet, this is just a guess.
But there have never been such precedents for the complete disconnection of the entire banking system of the country from the international banking system SWIFT in world history. But if this happens, it will have a rather serious impact on the entire Russian business, since Russia is very closely integrated with the world economy.
Therefore, already now some entrepreneurs who work with Russia, including those from China, have begun to look for alternative ways of making cash settlements with Russian banks.
One option is that a Russian state bank can first send money to an account in a Belarusian bank (via the Russian Financial Message Transmission System organized by the Central Bank of Russia), and the latter will send this money to the addressee.
Therefore, if you have the opportunity to organize payments to Russia through Belarus, then it would be better to study this possibility in more detail.
All companies that trade with Russia will have to build new financial chains. Perhaps look for an intermediary who has not been disconnected from SWIFT. All this will lead to a sharp slowdown in financial flows and an increase in the cost of operations, which means an increase in prices.
Some experts point to an increase in the likelihood of a significant fall in the ruble if there is a disconnection from the international banking system SWIFT at first, but then the situation should stabilize. Russia has already managed to build analogues of international payment systems: the Mir payment system (as a replacement for VISA and MasterCard), the Financial Message Transfer System (as a replacement for SWIFT), and the Fast Payment System (as a replacement for retail transactions using transfers by phone number ).
But since so far only Sberbank has introduced a system of transferring to China to Alipay by phone number, probably due to the fact that it is the largest Russian bank and the first bank in the list of anti-Russian sanctions. However, other Russian and Chinese banks are not yet in a hurry to form alternative methods of money transfers. At the same time, Mir cards are accepted in 13 other countries, including Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkey, but so far they are experiencing difficulties in China.
Evaluate all probabilities on your own and make decisions only on the basis of your own assessments, including changes in the exchange rate of the Russian currency and the emergence of difficulties with interbank settlements with Russian enterprises and banks.