Although the latest developments in the IT space in Russia have caused shock for many, from the Chinese point of view, almost nothing has happened. In China, for many years now, most of those foreign IT services that are leaving Russia in orderly rows have been blocked.
I will not write whether this is good or bad for Russia, but I will write about those global events in the Russian labor market and the trade market that are clearly foreseen now.
In general, we can say that Russia will repeat the path of China in the development of the IT industry, so the popularity and elitism of the programmer profession, as it has been in recent years in Russia, will soon disappear, many people from the IT sector will look for another job.
Soon Russia will have its own global companies in the IT market, analogues of the Chinese Tencent and Alibaba Group, which will force everyone to work according to their own rules. At the same time, these rules will be so formalized that other companies will simply have nothing to do there.
For example, most of China's domestic trade is conducted through Taobao (from Alibaba), the largest online marketplace. Where sellers receive an almost standard set of tools for selling, so only Alibaba programmers are always involved in the development of programs for trading. Programmers from other companies have practically no chance to enter the market with their developments, even another large company, Tencent, has not been able to push Taobao so much for many years.
But what is interesting here is not the market struggle, but how many IT specialists serve the work of Taobao - although exact data are not published, but according to reports in the Chinese media, only a few hundred programmers are able to serve the operation of this trading system for 1.5 billion people China, and then how many programmers will be needed to serve the new Russian Taobao for the entire population of Russia - 5? 10? 15 or 20 people? And what will thousands of other programmers in Russia do? And they will look for work in another area.
In addition, using the example of China, we can say that Russia is very likely to tighten all operations related to software products.
For example, the majority of Internet traffic in China goes through Wechat (from Tensent), while WeChat mini-programs (applications) are analogous to websites for Wechat. So, only certified developers can develop such mini-programs (applications) Wechat, and not everyone who wants to create websites like in Russia.
Even to make any changes to Wechat miniprograms (applications), you need to request official permission from Tencent, which can be issued within 7 days, only after that Wechat miniprograms (applications) will be published, unlike Russia, where a web developer can at least a million change the website once a day and the changes are published almost instantly.
Because of this, new Wichat mini-programs (applications) are very rarely developed and in many cases they use one of the templates, therefore, as such, there is practically no work for the programmer here - anyone can change the name of the company and goods in the template.
In Russia, Tencent now most closely resembles the company on Vkontakte, where they already have their own mini-programs (applications), but the rules are still liberal, but probably soon there will be registration with a passport, mandatory linking of a bank card, a photo of a real person that all foreigners have long passed in China.
Thus, about a hundred programmers will be enough to create similar software products in Russia and then simply support their work - they can simply copy the Chinese experience.
But in general, the Chinese experience is very good for the end consumer, as this will reduce prices for end consumers, so there will be absolutely nothing for those foreign companies that are now leaving Russia and these companies will never return to Russia again, they will not be able to never get the same market share. In China, both Ikea and other companies tried to enter the market, but were not successful - Taobao always offered a much better price and assortment.
In the future, one large online seller in Russia, as well as in China, will remove even the remaining retail chains and retail stores from the market.
So, many programmers, IT companies and even retail chains will disappear in Russia, but Russian consumers will benefit in price and assortment - they will be able to quickly receive goods from any region of Russia at lower prices.