In China, at the beginning of 2022, real estate prices began to rise again: statistics and prospects for the Chinese real estate market in 2022
After 4 months of falling real estate prices in 2021, real estate prices in 2022 in China are already showing signs of recovery. Statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics on February 21, 2022 show that, based on the price index for new commercial housing in 70 cities, the number of newly built commercial housing increased in 28 cities in January, an increase of 13 cities compared to the previous month.
In terms of price changes, the average price of new commercial housing in 70 cities decreased by 0.04%, down 0.24 p.p. compared with the previous month, the average growth in growing cities was 0.46%, an increase of 0.19 p.p. from the previous month. In terms of cities, Yinchuan topped the 70 cities in terms of new home price growth with 1.5% monthly growth, followed by Beijing and Chengdu with 1% monthly growth; Chongqing and Xuzhou followed closely, up 0.9% and 0.8% m/m respectively.
In terms of cities of all tiers, the sales price of new commercial housing in Tier 1 cities changed from a decline of 0.1% in the previous month to an increase of 0.6%, of which Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose by 1%, 0. 6%, 0.5% and 0.5% respectively; the sale price of new commercial residential buildings in cities changed from a decrease of 0.3% in the previous month to an increase of 0.1%; The selling price of new commercial residential buildings in Tier 3 cities decreased by 0.2% from the previous month, and the rate of decline decreased by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.
In terms of second-hand housing, the number of cities that rose was 10, up 4 from the previous month, the number of cities that did not hold back was 5, up 4 from the previous month, and the number of cities , which fell, amounted to 55, which is 8 less than in the previous month. In terms of change, existing home prices in 70 cities fell 0.28% m/m, down 0.08 percentage points from the previous month, while growth cities averaged 0.5%, up by 0.12%. points.
Among them, Chengdu and Kunming ranked first in price growth with 0.8% monthly growth, followed by Shanghai and Chongqing with 0.6% monthly growth. The price of existing homes in Beijing rose by 0.5% on a monthly basis, ranking fifth.
In terms of cities at all tiers, second-hand housing in Tier 1 cities rose 0.1% m/m, the same as last month. Among them, Beijing and Shanghai increased by 0.5% and 0.6% respectively, and Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell by 0.2% and 0.5% respectively, secondary housing in second-tier cities decreased by 0.2% on a monthly basis. and the rate of decline was 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month; the sale price of second homes in third-tier cities decreased by 0.4% on a monthly basis, and the rate of decline was 0.1 percentage points. lower than the previous month.
In general, prices in all Tier 1 cities are recovering faster. The chief market analyst at Shell Research Institute, said that the average monthly price of new homes in Tier 1 cities has stopped falling and started to rise, and prices in key provincial capitals and Tier 3 cities have stopped falling, which means that urban housing prices are generally stable in long term.
What are the main reasons for the decrease in the number of cities with a lower rating? According to the chief analyst at Centaline Real Estate, this is due to the relatively loose real estate policy. Since last October, national real estate regulation has gradually entered into a stable rhythm. “Although transaction activity declined due to the impact of the epidemic in January, the housing lending environment continued to improve, and some cities such as Nanning, Zigong and Fuzhou introduced measures to stabilize the housing market, such as lowering the down payment ratio, reserve funds and providing housing subsidies. — all this led to an improvement in market expectations,” said the Chinese expert.
Recently, many cities, including Beihai, Zigong, Nanning, Chongqing, Hejie, Ganzhou, Foshan, have adopted easing policies such as lowering the down payment rate. For example, the down payment for some properties in unrestricted areas of Foshan City has been reduced to 20%; The Nanning Reserve Fund Center issued the "Implementation Rules for the Management of Personal Housing Loans of the Nanning Housing Reserve Fund", which clarified that the initial contribution of the reserve fund for resale housing was reduced to 30%.
In early 2022, the Ministry of Housing and Urban and Rural Development clarified the direction of real estate development in 2022, emphasizing "observance of the principle of 'housing, not speculation, and promoting a virtuous real estate circle'." Now that the effects of policy have first appeared in different places, what will be the overall trend of the real estate market in 2022?
“January data provided a positive signal, indicating that, following a positive and appropriate policy adjustment in the fourth quarter of 2021, especially fiscal policy, the excessively rapid fall in home prices has begun to be contained.” The latest data on home loan interest rates released by the Shell Research Institute show that there is more room for lower home loan interest rates in February and the lending cycle has accelerated. a decrease in the cost of buying a home and a decrease in demand for housing.
At the same time, the Shell Research Institute data also show that since the Spring Festival, the average daily resale volume in the 50 Shell cities has increased significantly compared to the daily average in January, and market sentiment index has maintained a steady recovery. Transactional activity is expected to further improve in the later period and home prices to become stable again. The real estate market is expected to gradually return to normal in the first half of 2022. The market is expected to gradually stabilize in March and April 2022. Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities will take the lead out of the recession. SALE-BUY APARTMENT IN SANYA, HAINAN IN 2022 LOOK HERE>>>