Coronavirus 2019-nCoV may be more dangerous than Ebola, Spanish flu and SARS, or quarantine and anti-epidemic measures in China

Many Russian and other media outlets are perplexed by the unprecedented anti-epidemic measures that have been taken in China due to the spread of the new coronavirus 2019-nCoV, because the death toll is supposedly at such a low level that such measures to close cities in China , the introduction of access control for residents of China should not have been undertaken at all.


Foreign journalists often write about the 2% mortality rate from the spread of the new 2019-nCoV coronavirus, but let's look in more detail at what the actual mortality rate and mortality rate from the spread of the new 2019-nCoV coronavirus is, since often a foreign journalist asks about mortality, and the scientific the worker answers him about lethality, and this is not the same thing and it can be shown that the new coronavirus 2019-nCoV is more dangerous than Ebola, Spanish flu and SARS.


The mortality rate is a statistical indicator that estimates the number of deaths, or rather, the ratio of the number of deaths from illness to the average population for a certain period in a particular area, often calculated over the years per 100,000 population. The mortality rate allows you to evaluate the effectiveness of the health care system of a country, and also allows you to assess the risks of death from a particular cause.


Where did the very 2-3% mortality come from in all these television shows, articles, and coronavirus 2019-nCoV interviews? And foreign journalists illiterate just took and calculated the number of deaths from the 2019-nCoV coronavirus in relation to the total number of 2019-nCoV coronavirus infected at a given time. But this is a completely false figure, since it is necessary to collect statistics from the coronavirus 2019-nCoV for a long period of time, for example, for a year.


But what is more important now to assess the danger from the 2019-nCoV coronavirus? And now the mortality rate from the coronavirus 2019-nCoV is important.


The mortality rate (Case fatality rate (CFR)) is a statistical indicator equal to the ratio of the number of deaths from a disease to the number of patients with this disease over a certain period of time.


The mortality rate from the 2019-nCoV coronavirus for all time as of February 12, 2020 is ((1116) / (1116 + 5066)) * 100% = 18.5%.


And this, you must admit, is not at all the 2% that journalists often broadcast on television, this mortality rate is almost 6 times higher than the mortality rate in the Spanish influenza epidemic after the First World War and almost 2 times higher than the mortality rate in atypical pneumonia.


An indicator such as the basic reproduction number is also important - it is the expected number of secondary infections caused by one infection in a completely susceptible population, for coronavirus 2019-nCoV according to the latest estimates, this indicator is 4.08, and this almost two times higher than with Ebola.


Thus, the situation with the 2019-nCoV coronavirus is more serious than it was with MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV and Ebola, possibly by 2-3 orders of magnitude. It is these that explain the serious anti-epidemic measures with the 2019-nCoV coronavirus both on Hainan Island and in China as a whole.


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